- Spot gold fell back to the $1800 level in recent trade after stronger than expected US labour market data.
- The strong NFP number, hot wage growth and rise in participation rate spurred a fresh build-up of Fed tightening bets.
Spot gold (XAU/USD) prices lurched back to the $1800 level in recent trade in wake of the latest much stronger than anticipated US labour market figures for January. Prior to the data, the precious metal had been trading closer to $1815 and with tentative on the day gains. Now, XAU/USD trades about 0.3% lower on the session as it undulates either side of the $1800 mark. Bears will be eyeing a test of Thursday’s post-hawkish BoE/ECB lows in the $1788 area, a break below which could open the door to an extension of technical selling that could push spot gold prices back towards weekly lows in the $1780 area.
The strong US labour market report saw a blowout headline NFP gain and hot wage growth, as well as the estimate as to the size of the US labour force increase by about 1.5M, spurring a surge in Fed tightening bets. Unsurprisingly, this sent US yields and the buck higher in a kneejerk response, weighing on the XAU/USD, which has a strong negative correlation to both. US money markets have upped their bets that the Fed hikes rates by 50bps in March to an implied 23% (from 14.3% on Thursday). Higher interest rates dim the appeal of non-yielding precious metals.
As gold traders assess this week in its entirety, hawkishness/central bank tightening will be top of mind, following hawkish surprises from the BoE and ECB on Thursday and now in wake of the latest US jobs report. A shift towards higher interest rates/more hawkish central banks is not typically an environment that bodes well for gold in the long-term, so the precious metal may struggle to find dip-buyers in the $1800 area. Attention now shifts to next week’s US Consumer Price Inflation data which, if hotter than expected, may also spur a fresh build-up of Fed tightening bets next week, suggesting further downside risks for XAU/USD.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays near 1.0400 in thin holiday trading
EUR/USD trades with mild losses near 1.0400 on Tuesday. The expectation that the US Federal Reserve will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 provides some support for the US Dollar. Trading volumes are likely to remain low heading into the Christmas break.
GBP/USD struggles to find direction, holds steady near 1.2550
GBP/USD consolidates in a range at around 1.2550 on Tuesday after closing in negative territory on Monday. The US Dollar preserves its strength and makes it difficult for the pair to gain traction as trading conditions thin out on Christmas Eve.
Gold holds above $2,600, bulls non-committed on hawkish Fed outlook
Gold trades in a narrow channel above $2,600 on Tuesday, albeit lacking strong follow-through buying. Geopolitical tensions and trade war fears lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD, while the Fed’s hawkish shift acts as a tailwind for the USD and caps the precious metal.
IRS says crypto staking should be taxed in response to lawsuit
In a filing on Monday, the US International Revenue Service stated that the rewards gotten from staking cryptocurrencies should be taxed, responding to a lawsuit from couple Joshua and Jessica Jarrett.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.