- Bulls have lost their grip, besides a very near term possibility to the upside, bets are firmly being laid on the downside.
- The contrarians will be eyeing developments very closely at this juncture.
The price of gold has lost steam of late. While the upside case has been made loud and clear, there are arguments for a deep correction, not just stemming out of risk-on scenarios, but this is a double edge sword.
On one hand, risk-on will lead to an exodus of speculative bids and could in itself trigger a strong downside correction, setting-off stale sell stops.
On the other hand, should global economies experience vast amounts of bankruptcies, while the upside in gold would be a risk-off play, margin calls on long equities and risk assets could see gold suffer, so the bulls may have to wear some pain for longer.
Analysts at TD Securities weigh in with their fundamental analysis and argue that "as risk appetite continues to firm, the allure for precious metals is fading in the eyes of safe-haven buyers".
While ETF holdings of gold continue to rise at a fast clip, open interest in gold futures continues to subside following the EFP blowout with some preliminary evidence that OTC trading has captured some market share. As a result, liquidity remains scarce —which could suggest that flow from liquidity takers, such as CTAs, would have an outsized impact in this environment. In this context, while not our base case, gold prices are at risk as further downside below $1690/oz could catalyze CTA liquidations that may have an outsized impact as a result of the scarce liquidity environment.
Distribution could be the next chapter in the bullish gold story
The following charts offer a playbook for short XAU/USD:
There is scope for a playback towards prior structure on the daily chart before the next bearish impulse. Below here, we can see the next likely bearish target areas and structures.
4HR chart below shows a bearish outlook from MACD and price below bearish 20 moving average approaching the 200 MA.
When the dust settles, we continue to expect gold prices to rally as capital seeks shelter from a prolonged period of negative real rates.
- TDS
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD: Upside appears capped at 0.6300 on Trump's tariff fallout
AUD/USD struggles to build on the previous day's rebound and remains below the 0.6300 mark early Wednesday, anticipating US President Trump's tariffs announcement later in the day. However, buyers continue to draw support from China's stimulus optimism and RBA's prudence on the policy outlook.
USD/JPY holds losses below 150.00 as traders await Trump's tariffs
USD/JPY stays defensive below 150.00 in Wednesday's Asian trading as traders turn cautious ahead of Trump's reciprocal tariffs announcement. A cautious market mood and BoJ Ueda's comments underpin the Japanese Yen, keeping the pair under pressure amid a subdued US Dollar.
Gold price holds comfortably above $3,100 amid trade jitters
Gold price attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day's retracement slide from the record high amid persistent safe-haven demand, bolstered by worries about a tariff-driven global economic slowdown. Furthermore, Fed rate cut expectations and the lack of USD buying interest offer additional support to the XAU/USD.
Solana traders risk $120 reversal as FTX begins $800M repayments on May 30
Solana’s price remained pinned below $130 on Tuesday, despite a broader market recovery. While Bitcoin, Ripple, and Cardano posted gains exceeding 3% over the past 24 hours, SOL lagged behind.
Is the US economy headed for a recession?
Leading economists say a recession is more likely than originally expected. With new tariffs set to be launched on April 2, investors and economists are growing more concerned about an economic slowdown or recession.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.