Gold: Easy come, easy go

What began on the Gold market last Thursday as a setback after the strong price increase has now turned into a sharp correction, Commerzbank’s commodity strategist Carsten Fritsch notes.

Gold rises to record highs and falls after that

“The price of Gold has been under pressure for three days and is trading around the $2,400 per troy ounce mark again. The price has now fallen around $100 from the record high reached last Wednesday. This means that all gains since the release of the US inflation data the week before last have been wiped out. These data had led to a significant increase in expectations of interest rate cuts and thus triggered the price rise to the aforementioned record high.”

“The price increase was also supported by a further increase in net long positions on the part of speculative financial investors to the highest level since March 2020. It is quite conceivable that selling pressure has now also emanated from this side. The next CFTC data on Friday may shed light on this. Rate cut expectations have recently been scaled back somewhat.”

“However, according to Fed Funds Futures, a rate cut in September and a total of 2-3 rate cuts by the end of the year are still priced in. The current Gold price of around $2,400 per troy ounce should be more in line with this than a price level of $2,484 per troy ounce. The pressure on the Gold price should therefore ease now and the price should stabilize.”

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