The XAU/USD pair inched higher to its highest level since September 16 at $1305 but struggled to stretch its gains amid a lack of fresh catalysts that could impact the price action. As of writing, the pair was virtually unchanged on the day at $1303.
Despite the robust Empire State Manufacturing Index data, the greenback couldn't gather a bullish momentum on Monday as investors remained on the sidelines in the quiet day. The US Dollar Index, which closed the previous week a little below the 93 mark, has been moving in a tight range in the last few hours. At the moment, the index is at 93, up 0.08% on the day.
The softer-than-expected core-CPI inflation data from the U.S. on Friday hurt the expectations of a December Fed rate hike, pushing the CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability down to 81.7%. However, the negative impact of the data seems to have faded away and the CME Group FedWatch Tool's probability is back above 90% on Monday.
In the meantime, major equity indexes in the U.S., which reflect the market sentiment, is trading mixed in the session with the Dow Jones gaining 0.2% and the S&P 500 losing 0.02%, failing to help the pair find direction.
Technical outlook
The CCI indicator on the daily graph edged lower towards the 100 mark, showing that the bullish momentum is losing strength. However, as long as the pair continues to float above the $1300 mark, it could make fresh attempts on the upside. The first technical hurdle for the pair aligns at $1313 (Sep. 26 high) ahead of $1320 (Sep. 18 high) and $1333 (Sep. 12 high). On the downside, supports are located at $1300 (psychological level), $1286 (20-DMA) and $1275 (Oct. 9 low).
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