- GBP/USD jumped after the Fed scrubs growth projections on policy concerns.
- Fed long-run inflation expectations are stuck at 3.0%, Fed funds rate expectations pinned at 3.9%.
- Rate markets still see odds of a rate cut in June, but hope is dwindling fast.
GBP/USD lurched higher on Wednesday, tapping 1.2985 in intraday trading after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest rate call came in broadly as expected, with the Fed keeping rates steady at 4.5%. Markets broadly anticipated another hold from the Fed but are looking for signs that the Fed will continue to deliver rate cuts if the US labor market continues to break down.
According to the Fed, growth expectations for 2025 have been severely hampered by the Trump administration's policy approach of announcing then walking back trade tariffs via social media posts. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) trimmed its end-2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast at just 1.7%, down sharply from the 2.1% forecast posted in December.
Fed's Powell: Inflation remains somewhat elevated
The median dot plot of interest rates also sees the end-2025 interest rate stuck at 3.9%, remaining largely unchanged from the previous policy meeting. The FOMC has also decided to slow its balance sheet runoff beginning in April. Rate markets are still pricing in better-than-even odds that the Fed will still deliver a quarter-point rate cut in June, with bets rising above 60% after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that weakening growth and labor figures will be a key point of focus for policymakers.
Not all is rosy in the Fed's universe, however; Fed Chair Powell noted that whipsaw tariff policies from the US could spark further increases in inflation, which poses a significant risk to the Fed's playbook moving forward.
GBP/USD 5-minute chart
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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