- GBP/USD drops to a fresh YTD low and is pressured by a combination of factors.
- Bets for more aggressive policy easing by the BoE continue to weigh on the GBP.
- Reduced Fed rate cut bets underpin the USD and also contribute to the downfall.
The GBP/USD pair drifts lower for the third straight day on Tuesday – also marking the fourth day of a negative move in the previous five – and drops to its lowest level since November 17 during the Asian session. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2420 region as traders now look to the UK monthly employment details for a fresh impetus.
According to the consensus estimates, the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits are expected to rise to 17.2K from 16.8K previous and the jobless rate is seen edging higher from 3.9% to 4% during the three months to March. This could offer more evidence that the jobs market is cooling and reinforce bets for at least four rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) this year, starting in June, which should weigh on the British Pound (GBP) and drag the GBP/USD pair lower.
Meanwhile, the immediate market reaction to a surprisingly stronger report is more likely to be limited in the wake of a strong bullish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), bolstered by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. Investors pushed back their expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Fed to September from June following the release of hotter-than-expected US consumer inflation figures. This keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated and underpins the buck.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East turn out to be another factor that benefits the Greenback's relative safe-haven status. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside and any attempted recovery might now be seen as a selling opportunity. Traders on Tuesday will further take cues from the US macro data and speeches by FOMC members, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD weakens below 1.0900 amid trade war fears
EUR/USD loses ground to trade below 1.0880 in early Europe on Thursday. Escalating US-EU trade tensions weigh on risk sentiment and the pair, lending some support to the US Dollar amid US inflation cooldown. Focus shifts to ECB-speak and US PPI data.
Gold price sticks to gains near all-time high ahead of US PPI; bulls shrug off modest USD strength
Gold price retains its positive bias through the first half of the European session on Thursday and remains within striking distance of the record high touched on February 24. Persistent worries about the potential economic fallout from Trump's aggressive trade policies benefit the safe-haven bullion for the third successive day.
GBP/USD stay defensive near 1.2950 as risk-off mood persists
GBP/USD is on the defensive near 1.2950 in the European session on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from intensifying tariff war globally and a pause in the US Dollar downtrend. Traders look forward to the US PPI data for fresh directional impetus.
Metaverse narrative stalls as price action fades, but on-chain data signals continuing accumulation
Metaverse tokens are cryptocurrencies associated with virtual worlds, digital economies, and immersive online experiences. Tokens like Sandbox (SAND), Decentraland (MANA), and Axie Infinity (AXS), three of the most prominent assets during the Metaverse boom of 2021, continue to face correction since they topped in early December.
Brexit revisited: Why closer UK-EU ties won’t lessen Britain’s squeezed public finances
The UK government desperately needs higher economic growth as it grapples with spending cuts and potential tax rises later this year. A reset of UK-EU economic ties would help, and sweeping changes are becoming more likely.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.