GBP/USD recovers slightly from multi-month low, remains below mid-1.2600s

GBP/USD ticks higher at the start of a new week amid a modest USD downtick.
The Trump trade optimism should limit the USD downside and cap the major.
The BoE uncertainty could also contribute to capping the upside for the GBP.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates in a range above the 1.2600 round-figure mark, or the lowest level since mid-May touched on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a six-day losing streak amid a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick, though the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of the recent well-established downtrend.

The USD remains on the defensive below the year-to-date (YTD) top set last Thursday as bulls pause for a breather following the post-US election blowout rally. Any meaningful USD depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies will likely rekindle inflationary pressures and limit the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This has been a key factor behind the recent upsurge in the US Treasury bond yields, which suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD is to the upside.

The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, might struggle to lure buyers on the back of the uncertainty concerning the Bank of England's (BoE) path forward on interest rates. Data released last week showed that UK wage growth excluding bonuses cooled in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.0%. Furthermore, the UK GDP unexpectedly contracted for the first time in five months in September, increasing expectations for BoE rate cuts. That said, BoE members do not see the central bank cutting interest rates at the December policy meeting.

This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying to confirm that the GBP/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom. Bearish traders, however, might now wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the 1.2600 round figure before placing fresh bets amid absent relevant market-moving economic releases on Monday, either from the UK or the US.

(This story was corrected on November 18 at 08:27 GMT to say that the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.0%, not from 4.1%.)

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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