GBP/USD rallies on Tuesday, taps fresh yearly high

GBP/USD pressed into a new 13-month high on Tuesday.
Pound Sterling continues to rally on broad-market Greenback weakness.
Markets are tilting toward Thursday’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium kickoff.

GBP/USD chalked in another third of a percent gain on Tuesday, squeezing out a fresh 13-month high and closing in the green for a third straight day as the Pound Sterling capitalizes on broad-market Greenback weakness. Market sentiment is holding on the high end ahead of key business activity survey results, and the upcoming kickoff of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Wednesday will give markets another opportunity to take a breather before high impact data gets underway in the back half of the trading week. UK Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures for August are expected to drift upwards slightly, with the UK Services PMI component forecast to tick up to 52.8 from 52.5. The Manufacturing section is expected to hold steady at 52.1.

US PMI business activity survey results are slated for release on Thursday, as well as the kickoff of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium which is set to run through the weekend. Wednesday will deliver the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest Meeting Minutes, but market forces will broadly be looking ahead to Thursday’s outings for reasons to move.

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI activity expectations are forecast to hold steady at 49.6 in August, while the Services PMI component is expected to tick down a full point to 54.0 from 55.0. The kickoff of the Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to draw plenty of investor attention on Thursday, but Friday’s appearance from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell can be expected to set the overall tone of market sentiment heading into next week.

GBP/USD price forecast

Cable continues to grind its way higher with price action tapping a fresh 13-month peak bid just above 1.3050 on Tuesday. The pair has closed in the green for all but one of the last nine straight trading days.

However, failure by bulls to push even further beyond current levels could see a short pressure trap build as a double-top forms on daily candlesticks, and an overextended bullish push is looking at a long way to drop before running into the nearest technical barrier at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2806.

GBP/USD daily chart

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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