- GBP/USD remains under some selling pressure on Friday, though lacks follow-through.
- The uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-cut path should cap the USD and offer support.
- The mixed technical setup further warrants caution before placing directional bets.
The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day on Friday, albeit manages to hold its neck above the previous day's swing low. Spot prices currently hover around the mid-1.2700s and seem poised to register modest weekly gains amid subdued US Dollar (USD) price action.
Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance, the emergence of fresh selling around the Japanese Yen (JPY), triggered by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) inaction, lends some support to the USD and weighs on the GBP/USD pair. That said, signs of easing inflationary pressures in the US keep hopes alive for a September Fed rate cut, which should cap the USD and act as a tailwind for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 1.2800 mark and the subsequent downfall warrant caution for the GBP/USD bulls ahead of the UK national election on July 4. Meanwhile, mixed oscillators on the daily chart further make it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent strong rally from the YTD trough touched in April has run its course.
Hence, any further decline is likely to find decent support near the 1.2755-1.2750 horizontal zone, below which the GBP/USD pair could slide to the 1.2715-1.2710 region. The downfall could extend further towards the 1.2690-1.2685 region en route to the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near the 1.2640-1.2635 area. A convincing break below the latter will mark a bearish breakdown and pave the way for deeper losses.
On the flip side, bulls need to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 1.2800 mark before positioning for a move back towards the 1.2860 area, or over a three-month high touched on Wednesday. A sustained strength beyond should allow the GBP/USD pair to surpass the YTD peak, around the 1.2900 neighborhood, and the 1.2950 resistance, towards reclaiming the 1.3000 psychological mark for the first time since July 2023.
GBP/USD daily chart
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds steady near 0.6250 ahead of RBA Minutes
The AUD/USD pair trades on a flat note around 0.6250 during the early Asian session on Monday. Traders brace for the Reserve Bank of Australia Minutes released on Monday for some insight into the interest rate outlook.
USD/JPY consolidates around 156.50 area; bullish bias remains
USD/JPY holds steady around the mid-156.00s at the start of a new week and for now, seems to have stalled a modest pullback from the 158.00 neighborhood, or over a five-month top touched on Friday. Doubts over when the BoJ could hike rates again and a positive risk tone undermine the safe-haven JPY.
Gold: Is another record-setting year in the books in 2025?
Gold benefited from escalating geopolitical tensions and the global shift toward a looser monetary policy environment throughout 2024, setting a new all-time high at $2,790 and rising around 25% for the year.
Week ahead: No festive cheer for the markets after hawkish Fed
US and Japanese data in focus as markets wind down for Christmas. Gold and stocks bruised by Fed, but can the US dollar extend its gains? Risk of volatility amid thin trading and Treasury auctions.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.