GBP/USD Price Analysis: Holds below 1.2700, Bear cross eyed

The GBP/USD pair gains ground below the 1.2700 barrier during the early European session on Thursday. The major pair trades in positive territory for the second consecutive day as traders slashed their bets on an early interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). GBP/USD currently trades near 1.2682, down 0.01% on the day. 

From the technical perspective, the bearish outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains intact as the pair holds below the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the four-hour chart. It’s worth noting that the 50-hour EMA is on the verge of crossing below the 100-hour EMA. If a decisive crossover occurs on the four-hour chart, it would validate a Bear Cross, highlighting that the path of least resistance for GBP/USD is to the downside.

The downward momentum of the major pair is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands in bearish territory below the 50 midline, supporting the sellers for now.

The confluence of the 100-hour EMA and a psychological round figure at 1.2700 acts as an immediate resistance level for the major pair for the time being. The next upside barrier will emerge at the 1.2760-1.2765 region, portraying a high of January 15 and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Further north, the additional upside filter is seen near a high of January 12 at 1.2785, followed by a high of December 28, 2023 at 1.2828.

On the downside, the initial support level for GBP/USD is located near a low of December 18 at 1.2628. The next contention level to watch is the lower limit of the Bollinger Band at 1.2608. Any follow-through selling below the latter will see a drop to a low of December 7 at 1.2544.

GBP/USD four-hour chart