- GBP/USD edges lower on Thursday amid the emergence of some USD buying.
- A slightly overbought RSI is seen holding back bulls from placing fresh bets.
- The technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
The GBP/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Thursday, albeit lacks follow-through selling and remains well within the striking distance of the one-year peak touched the previous day. Spot prices currently hover around the 1.3000 psychological mark and seem poised to prolong the recent uptrend witnessed over the past three weeks or so.
A modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields assists the US Dollar (USD) in recovering a part of the previous day's heavy losses to a nearly four-month low, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. That said, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start the rate-cutting cycle in September, along with the underlying strong bullish tone across the global equity markets, might cap the upside for the safe-haven Greenback.
Meanwhile, data published on Wednesday showed that UK inflation rose slightly more than expected, coming in at a 2% YoY rate for June. This comes on the back of a better-than-expected GDP growth of 0.4% in May and dampens chances of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August. This might continue to underpin the British Pound and further contribute to limiting the downside for the GBP/USD pair, warranting some caution for bearish traders.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the previous YTD peak, around the 1.2895 region, was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing overbought conditions and makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg up. Any meaningful slide, however, is likely to attract fresh buyers near the 1.2965 area and remain limited.
The latter is closely followed by the weekly low, around the 1.2940-1.2935 region touched on Tuesday, which if broken decisively could pave the way for a slide back towards the 1.2900 mark. The said handle should now act as a key pivotal point, below which the GBP/USD pair could extend the corrective decline towards intermediate support near the 1.2855 zone en route to the 1.2820-1.2815 region and the 1.2800 round-figure mark.
On the flip side, momentum beyond the YTD peak, around the 1.3045 area set on Wednesday, should allow bulls to reclaim the 1.3100 mark. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.3140 region, or the July 2023 swing high.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.