- GBP/USD picks up bids to reverse early-day losses, prints five-day uptrend.
- UK Claimant Count Change increased in November, Unemployment Rate rose during three months to October.
- Market’s cautious optimism, mixed signals surrounding US inflation weigh on the US Treasury yields, US Dollar.
- US CPI, speech from BOE Governor Bailey will be crucial for clear directions.
GBP/USD prints mild gains while picking up bids to refresh intraday high during the five-day uptrend to early Tuesday morning in the UK. That said, the Cable pair buyers attack 1.2300 round figure, up 0.20% intraday near 1.2280 heading into Tuesday’s London open, despite mixed employment data.
As per the latest jobs report from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS), the monthly Claimant Count Change marked a positive surprise of 30.5K in November versus -13.3K expected and -6.4K prior. Further, the Unemployment Rate matched 3.7% market forecast during the three months to October. It should be noted that the upbeat average earnings seemed to have favored the GBP/USD buyers.
Also read: UK ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7% in October vs. 3.7% expected
It’s worth noting that the US Dollar began the day’s trading on the positive side but failed to defend the gains afterward. The reason could be linked to the downbeat US Treasury bond yields amid hopes of softer US inflation data. That said, a slump in the one-year inflation precursor from the New York Federal Reserve joins the softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) for November to bolster the hopes of downbeat US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which in turn tests hawkish Fed bets and propel the GBP/USD prices.
That said, the US CPI, expected 7.3% YoY, versus 7.7% prior figure, will be crucial for near-term directions. It should be noted that the CPI ex Food & Energy appears to be the key and is expected to be unchanged at 0.3% MoM.
Looking forward, a speech from Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey will be important for the GBP/USD pair traders as they await the next moves of the “Old Lady”, as the BOE is informally called. Additionally, important will be the monthly prints of the US CPI and Core CPI data, with eyes on the Fed meeting. Given the latest improvement in the UK data and mixed concerns surrounding the US inflation, the odds of the Cable pair’s further upside momentum are higher.
Also read: US Consumer Sentiment Preview: Dollar set to decline on falling inflation expectations
Technical analysis
A one-week-old descending resistance line near 1.2315 restricts immediate GBP/USD upside. The downside moves, however, remain elusive unless the quote breaks the two-week-old ascending trend line, around 1.2270 by the press time.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds losses below 1.1400 ahead of ECB policy decision
EUR/USD stays on the back foot below 1.1400 in the European session on Thursday. The pair loses ground on the back of a broad US Dollar rebound and as traders remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank interest rate decision and Lagarde's press conference.
GBP/USD stays defensive near 1.3250 as US Dollar bounces
GBP/USD stays defensive near 1.3250 in Thursday's European trading, snapping its seven-day winning streak. A tepid US Dollar recovery amid risk appetite prompts the pair to pullback from six-month highs of 1.3292 set on Wednesday. Traders look to tariff headlibnes and US data for fresh impetus.
Gold price retreats from record high as profit-taking kicks in
Gold price retreats after touching a fresh all-time peak earlier this Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day's blowout rally though the downside remains cushioned. A slight improvement in the global risk sentiment, bolstered by hopes of US trade negotiations, turns out to be a key factor undermining the precious metal.
European Central Bank set to cut interest rates again amid easing inflation and tariff uncertainty
The European Central Bank will announce its April interest rate decision on Thursday at 12:15 GMT. Markets widely expect the central bank to lower key rates for the sixth consecutive time. This time the ECB is set to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) cut after the April policy meeting.
Future-proofing portfolios: A playbook for tariff and recession risks
It does seem like we will be talking tariffs for a while. And if tariffs stay — in some shape or form — even after negotiations, we’ll likely be talking about recession too. Higher input costs, persistent inflation, and tighter monetary policy are already weighing on global growth.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.