- GBP/USD is seen consolidating its recent gains to the highest level since June 2022.
- A modest USD recovery from over one-week low acts as a headwind for the pair.
- The downside seems limited, warranting some caution before placing bearish bets.
The GBP/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation and oscillates in a narrow trading range just below its highest level since June 2022 touched this Thursday. The pair holds steady just above the mid-1.2500s through the early North American session, awaiting a fresh catalyst before the next leg of a directional move.
In the meantime, a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from over one-week low acts as a headwind and keeps the GBP/USD pair below the 1.2600 round-figure mark. Signs of stress at another US regional bank, PacWest Bancorp, sparks fears of a full-blown banking crisis in the US, which, along with looming recession risks, temper investors' appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a generally weaker tone around the equity markets and helps revive demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets in the wake of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less hawkish outlook. It is worth recalling that the US central bank raised interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday and opened the door for a possible pause in June. Apart from this, concerns over the US debt ceiling continue to act as a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields, which should further contribute to keeping a lid on the buck and limiting the downside for the GBP/USD pair, at least for now.
On the economic data front, the US Initial Weekly Jobless Claims rose more than expected, to 242K during the week ending April 29 from the previous week’s 229K (revised from 230K) and fails to provide any meaningful impetus. Traders now seem to have moved to the sidelines and keenly await the closely-watched US monthly jobs data on Friday. The popularly known NFP report will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and determine the near-term trajectory for the GBP/USD pair.
Technical levels to watch
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