- GBP/USD rebounds to around 1.2440 in Monday’s early European session.
- Fed officials highlighted a need to balance inflation control with maintaining a strong labor market.
- The dovish BOE bets might cap the upside for the pair in the near term.
The GBP/USD pair extends the recovery to near 1.2440 during the early European session on Monday. However, the potential upside seems limited amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance. Later on Monday, investors await the Fed’s Governor Lisa Cook speech for more cues about the US interest rate outlook this year.
The US central bank has cut the interest rates by one percentage point since September 2024 and signaled slower rate cuts this year, which supports the US Dollar (USD) broadly. Over the weekend, the Fed officials reinforced the view that the Fed will take a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates this year. Fed policymakers warned the fight against inflation is still with them while also highlighting their need to protect job market stability.
Traders will closely monitor the US December labor market data on Friday. Economists expect 150,000 new jobs for December, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% during the same report period. The Average Hourly Earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% MoM in December. In case of a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could weigh on the USD against the Pound Sterling (GBP).
On the other hand, the rising Bank of England (BoE) dovish bets could undermine the GBP. The markets are now pricing in nearly 60 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the BoE this year, up from 53 bps seen in the last week of December. Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, said the BOE policymakers appear more divided on the path ahead for UK interest rates and that reflects “the complex outlook for the UK economy, as fragile consumer demand is counterbalanced by the pro-inflationary implications of the Autumn Budget and Trump’s tariff proposals.”
(This story was corrected on January 6 at 08:13GMT to say that a weaker-than-expected outcome in the US labor market data on Friday could weigh on the USD against the Pound Sterling (GBP), not against the Cable.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD falls to fresh daily lows below 1.0400 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD came under selling pressure early in the American session following the release of United States macroeconomic figures. The December ISM Services PMI unexpectedly surged to 54.1, while November JOLTS Job Openings rose to 8.1 million, also bearing expectations.
GBP/USD extends retracement, struggles to retain 1.2500
GBP/USD lost further traction and battles to retain the 1.2500 mark after hitting an intraday high of 1.2575. Stock markets turned south after the release of upbeat American data, providing fresh legs to the US Dollar rally.
Gold holds on to modest gains amid a souring mood
Spot Gold lost its bullish traction and retreated toward the $2,650 area following the release of encouraging US macroeconomic figures. Jumping US Treasury yields further support the US Dollar in the near term.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC holds above $100K following Fed’s Michael Barr resign
Bitcoin edges slightly down to around $101,300 on Tuesday after rallying almost 4% the previous day. The announcement of Michael S. Barr’s resignation as Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision on Monday has pushed BTC above the $100K mark.
Five fundamentals for the week: Nonfarm Payrolls to keep traders on edge in first full week of 2025 Premium
Did the US economy enjoy a strong finish to 2024? That is the question in the first full week of trading in 2025. The all-important NFP stand out, but a look at the Federal Reserve and the Chinese economy is also of interest.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.