- GBP/USD appreciates as the US Fed is widely expected to deliver a deeper rate cut in September.
- The upside of the GBP could be limited due to increased risk aversion amid rising Middle-East tensions.
- Two US intelligence officials said that Iran and its allies are preparing potential retaliation against Israel.
GBP/USD breaks its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.2700 during the Asian session on Thursday. This upside could be attributed to the weaker US Dollar (USD) as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to implement a more aggressive rate cut beginning in September.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 72.0% probability of a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, up from 11.8% a week earlier. The expectation of deeper rate cuts may pressure the US Dollar in the near term.
Weaker employment data from July have heightened concerns about a potential US recession. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in weaker than the expectation, data showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since November 2021 in July.
According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed increased confidence earlier this week that US inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target. Daly noted that “risks to the Fed's mandates are becoming more balanced and that there is openness to the possibility of cutting rates in upcoming meetings.”
On the GBP front, the increased risk aversion linked to escalating Middle-East tensions could lead traders to shy away from risk-sensitive currencies like the Pound Sterling (GBP). According to two US intelligence officials, Iran and its allies are preparing potential retaliation against Israel. This response is expected following the recent killings of a top military commander of Iran’s Hezbollah in Lebanon and a senior Hamas leader in Tehran, as reported by CNN.
Meanwhile, the upside of the British Pound could be restrained from the heightened expectations of BoE delivering a 25-basis point rate cut at its August meeting. Additionally, market expectations now include the possibility of two more quarter-point rate cuts by the BoE by December.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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