- GBP/USD regains positive traction following the previous day’s post-US CPI decline.
- Dovish Fed expectations and a positive risk tone weigh on the USD and lend support.
- Traders now look to the UK GDP print for some impetus ahead of the US macro data.
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's post-US CPI retracement slide from the vicinity of the monthly peak. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2735-1.2740 region, up less than 0.10% for the day as traders now look to the release of the preliminary UK Q3 GDP print for a fresh impetus.
The consensus estimates suggest that the British economy expanded by 0.6% during the April-June period, slightly less than the 0.7% rise recorded in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, the annualized UK GDP growth is expected to come in at 0.9% as compared to 0.3% in the first quarter. Against the backdrop of a surprise dip in the UK unemployment rate, even a stronger GDP print will signal a strengthening economy. This might complicate the Bank of England’s (BoE) plans to lower interest rates and provide a goodish lift to the British Pound (GBP).
Apart from this, investors on Thursday will take cues from the US macro data – monthly Retail Sales, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The data might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Ahead of the key data, bets for an imminent start of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cutting cycle, bolstered by data indicating that inflation is on a downward trend, weigh on the USD and lend support to the currency pair.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that the headline US CPI rose moderately, by 0.2% in July after falling 0.1% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the annual increase in the CPI slowed a bit and fell below 3% for the first time in nearly three-and-half years, suggesting continued progress towards the Fed's inflation goals. Investors, however, scaled back expectations for more aggressive policy easing by the Fed, which, along with geopolitical risks, could help limit the downside for the buck and keep a lid on the GBP/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Aug 15, 2024 06:00 (Prel)
Frequency: Quarterly
Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: 0.7%
Source: Office for National Statistics
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