- GBP/USD trades in positive territory for the eighth consecutive day near 1.3215 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- Fed’s Powell signalled for a September rate cut but did not mention about the size and pace of the rate cut.
- BoE’s Bailey said it’s still too early to declare victory on inflation.
The GBP/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 1.3215 during the early Asian session on Monday. The signal that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start easing its monetary policy in September drags the Greenback lower and supports GBP/USD. Market players await the US Durable Goods Orders for July, which are due later on Monday.
At Jackson Hole on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the FOMC will cut the target range for the Federal Funds Rate at their next meeting on September 17-18 as inflation is on a sustainable path back to the 2% target. Nonetheless, Powell did not want to provide a hint about the size of the rate cut in September and the pace of the rate cut this year as the Fed remains data-dependent.
The firmer bets of the Fed rate cuts continue to undermine the Greenback and create a tailwind for GBP/USD. Rabobank analysts noted that they expect the labor market to worsen further in the remainder of the year, triggering four consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each in the September, November, December and January meetings.
On the other hand, the speculation that the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy-easing cycle will be slower than that of other major central banks provides some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP). BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said late Friday that inflation remains a major concern for the UK central bank, although many pricing pressures have eased quicker than expected. Bailey noted that it is premature to declare victory on inflation.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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