- Sterling drops 0.17% as investors flee risk assets amid looming US tariffs and global trade war fears.
- Goldman raises US recession odds to 35% as confidence deteriorates; Q1 set to be the worst since 1980s.
- Stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI lifts USD while lack of UK data leaves GBP vulnerable to risk aversion.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) loses ground versus the US Dollar (USD) as US Liberation Day approaches on Wednesday, when President Donald Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs to the ones already enacted since March 2. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.2911, down 0.17%.
GBP/USD falls to 1.2911 as risk sentiment sours, DXY climbs and US recession odds spike on confidence shock
The escalation of the trade war has led investors to ditch riskier assets. Wall Street registers substantial losses on Monday, a reflection of a dismal market mood as US equities are set to finish their worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since the 1980s, revealed Bloomberg.
In the meantime, Goldman Sachs revealed that the chances of a recession in the US increased from 20% to 35% due to a “deterioration in household and business confidence” and comments from Washington hinting they will tolerate a deeper economic slowdown in order to achieve their goals.
Data-wise, the United Kingdom (UK) economic docket is absent, while the Chicago PMI data for March rose by 47.6 points from 45.5 and exceeded forecasts of 45.4. Notably, it is the largest level since November 2023, yet it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth consecutive month.
Some of the subcomponents improved, like Production, New Orders, Employment, and Order Backlogs. Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, and Prices Paid dipped, according to the poll.
GBP/USD extended its mild fall as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of a basket of six currencies, including the Pound versus the Greenback, rose 0.23% to 104.24.
Ahead this week, the UK economic docket will feature Housing Prices and Flash PMIs. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, along with Nonfarm Payrolls, would dictate the path of the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
GBP/USD consolidates above 1.2900 with bears capping the advance within the 1.29 – 1.2990 levels for the latest five days, which could pave the way for testing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2803 if sellers clear 1.2900. On the other hand, if buyers regain 1.2950, they could test the 1.3000 mark. Once surpassed, the next stop will be the November 2024 peak at 1.3047.
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.29% | 0.23% | -0.13% | 0.56% | 0.87% | 0.91% | 0.55% | |
| EUR | -0.29% | 0.04% | -0.39% | 0.32% | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.31% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | -0.04% | -0.46% | 0.32% | 0.62% | 0.65% | 0.31% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.39% | 0.46% | 0.70% | 1.04% | 1.07% | 0.59% | |
| CAD | -0.56% | -0.32% | -0.32% | -0.70% | 0.34% | 0.35% | -0.01% | |
| AUD | -0.87% | -0.66% | -0.62% | -1.04% | -0.34% | 0.02% | -0.34% | |
| NZD | -0.91% | -0.66% | -0.65% | -1.07% | -0.35% | -0.02% | -0.37% | |
| CHF | -0.55% | -0.31% | -0.31% | -0.59% | 0.01% | 0.34% | 0.37% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY slumps to three-week low amid Trump's tariffs-inspired risk-off impulse
USD/JPY dives to a three-week low, closing in on 147.00 in the Asian session on Thursday as Trump's sweeping trade tariffs provide a strong boost to the safe-haven asset Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, US receesion fears smash the US Dollar back closer to a multi-month low touched in March, undermining the pair.
AUD/USD remains heavy below 0.6300 despite upbeat Chinese PMI data
AUD/USD remains under decent selling pressure below 0.6300 in Asian session on Thursday. The Australian Dollar keeps losses against the US Dollar despite the strong Chinese PMI data. US President Donald Trump's global reciprocal tariffs-led risk aversion remains a drag on the Aussie pair.
Gold price corrects from record high as focus shifts to US NFP data
Gold price is correcting sharply from a new record high of $3,168 reached in the early Asian session on Thursday. Despite the pullback, Gold price preserves a significant part of the recent record run, courtesy of escalating risks of a global trade war and a US recession.
Bitcoin and top altcoins slide as Trump kicks off reciprocal tariffs
Bitcoin and the entire crypto market saw a quick correction on Wednesday following President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff announcements based on half of each country's respective rates.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on the way
United States (US) President Donald Trump’s self-styled “Liberation Day” has finally arrived. After four straight failures to kick off Donald Trump’s “day one” tariffs that were supposed to be implemented when President Trump assumed office 72 days ago, Trump’s team is slated to finally unveil a sweeping, lopsided package of “reciprocal” tariffs.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.