- GBP/USD struggles for a firm near-term direction and oscillates in a familiar trading range.
- Reduced bets for an early BoE rate cut underpin the GBP and lend some support to the pair.
- The uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-cut path holds back traders from placing directional bets.
The GBP/USD pair ticks higher following an Asian session dip on Monday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2700 mark, nearly unchanged for the day as traders await a fresh catalyst before positioning for a firm near-term trajectory.
Hence, the focus remains glued to the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting starting on Tuesday amid the uncertainty over the timing of the first interest rate cut. Data released on Friday showed that the US inflation rose modestly in December and reaffirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by the middle of 2024. That said, stronger growth in Personal Incomes fueled a surge in spending, which, along with the upbeat US Q4 GDP print, suggested that the economy is still in good shape. This, in turn, raises doubts over the possibility of more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and should cap the GBP/USD pair.
Apart from this, a generally weaker tone around the equity markets assists the safe-haven buck to stand tall near its highest level since December 13 touched last week. That said, hopes for a soft landing for the US economy keep a lid on the US Treasury bond yields and the USD. Apart from this, expectations that a slight pickup in Britain's stagnant economy could delay the start of the Bank of England's (BoE) policy easing cycle could lend support to the British Pound (GBP) and continue lending support to the GBP/USD pair. The recent range-bound price action, however, points to indecision among traders over the next leg of a directional move for spot prices and warrants some caution for aggressive traders.
Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Monday, either from the UK or the US, leaving the GBP/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Investors, meanwhile, might prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risk and important US macro data scheduled at the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through the short-term trading band before positioning for a firm near-term direction.
Technical levels to watch
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
USD/JPY remains below 158.00 after Japanese data
Soft US Dollar demand helps the Japanese Yen to trim part of its recent losses, with USD/JPY changing hands around 157.70. Higher than anticipated Tokyo inflation passed unnoticed.
AUD/USD weakens to near 0.6200 amid thin trading
The AUD/USD pair remains on the defensive around 0.6215 during the early Asian session on Friday. The incoming Donald Trump administration is expected to boost growth and lift inflation, supporting the US Dollar (USD). The markets are likely to be quiet ahead of next week’s New Year holiday.
Gold hovers around $2,630 in thin trading
The US Dollar returns from the Christmas holidays with a soft tone, although market action seems contained. The positive tone of Asian shares weighs on the Greenback.
Floki DAO floats liquidity provisioning for a Floki ETP in Europe
Floki DAO — the organization that manages the memecoin Floki — has proposed allocating a portion of its treasury to an asset manager in a bid to launch an exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe, allowing institutional investors to gain exposure to the memecoin.
2025 outlook: What is next for developed economies and currencies?
As the door closes in 2024, and while the year feels like it has passed in the blink of an eye, a lot has happened. If I had to summarise it all in four words, it would be: ‘a year of surprises’.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.