GBP/USD consolidates in a range around 1.2570 area; upside potential seems limited


  • GBP/USD struggles to capitalize on Friday’s bounce from a multi-month trough. 
  • The Fed’s hawkish tilt, elevated US bond yields and geopolitics underpin the USD. 
  • The BoE’s dovish outlook further holds back the GBP bulls from placing fresh bets.

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range above mid-1.2500s during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of Friday's bounce from the 1.2475 area, or the lowest level since May. 

The US Dollar (USD) pulled back from a two-year high on Friday after the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report for November pointed to signs of inflation moderation and lingering challenges for the economy. This keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and offers some support to the GBP/USD pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish shift might continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven buck. 

The Fed, as was widely anticipated, lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last Wednesday, though signaled a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying and might cap the GBP/USD pair. 

Apart from this, the Bank of England's (BoE) split vote decision to leave interest rates unchanged last week and a dovish outlook might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP). In fact, three members of the BoE's MPC voted to reduce rates, while policymakers downgraded their economic forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024. This might further contribute to keeping a lid on the GBP/USD pair. 

Market participants now look to the BoE's Quarterly Bulletin for some impetus ahead of the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index later during the early North American session. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the GBP/USD pair has bottomed out in the near term.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA near 1.0450, improved RSI supports upside

EUR/USD tests nine-day EMA near 1.0450, improved RSI supports upside

EUR/USD extends its gains for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.0440 during the Asian hours on Monday. A review of the daily chart shows an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is confined within a descending channel pattern.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD consolidates in a range around 1.2570 area; upside potential seems limited

GBP/USD consolidates in a range around 1.2570 area; upside potential seems limited

The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading range above mid-1.2500s during the Asian session. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution before positioning for an extension of Friday's bounce from the 1.2475 area, or the lowest level since May. 

GBP/USD News
Gold price holds comfortably above $2,600 mark; lacks bullish conviction

Gold price holds comfortably above $2,600 mark; lacks bullish conviction

Gold price oscillates in a range at the start of a new week amid mixed fundamental cues. Geopolitical risks continue to underpin the XAU/USD amid subdued US Dollar price action. The Fed’s hawkish stance backs elevated US bond yields and caps the pair’s gains.

Gold News
The US Dollar ends the year on a strong note

The US Dollar ends the year on a strong note

The US Dollar ends the year on a strong note, hitting two-year highs at 108.45. The Fed expects a 50-point rate cut for the full year 2025 versus 4 cuts one quarter earlier, citing higher inflation forecasts and a stubbornly strong labour market. 

Read more
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building

Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures