GBP/USD consolidates below one-year top, looks to UK CPI for fresh directional impetus

GBP/USD remains confined in a familiar range held since the beginning of this week.
September Fed rate cut bets continue to undermine the USD and lend some support.
Diminishing bets for the August BoE rate cut favor bulls ahead of the UK CPI report.

The GBP/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third successive day on Wednesday and trades around the 1.2970 region during the Asian session. Spot prices, meanwhile, remain well within the striking distance of a one-year peak touched on Monday and the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of a two-week-old uptrend.

The US Dollar (USD) draws some support from the upbeat US Retail Sales data released on Tuesday, which pointed to consumer resilience and bolstered economic growth prospects for the second quarter. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair as traders keenly await the crucial UK consumer inflation figures before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

The headline UK CPI is expected to come in at 0.1% for June as compared to 0.3% in the previous month, while the yearly rate is anticipated to hold steady at 2.0% YoY. Heading into the key data risk, diminishing odds of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August, especially after Britain's economy grew more quickly than expected in May, continues to lend some support to the British Pound (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the markets are now pricing in over a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs in September, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields depressed near a multi-month low and should cap the USD. This, in turn, validates the near-term positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair, suggesting that any immediate market reaction to the softer UK CPI report is more likely to be limited.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.