- GBP/USD scales higher for the second straight day amid the emergence of some USD selling.
- Dovish Fed expectations, sliding US bond yields and the risk-on impulse undermines the USD.
- Bets for two more BoE rate cuts in 2024 and the ongoing riots in the UK might cap the upside.
The GBP/USD pair is seen building on the previous day's goodish rebound from the 1.2665 area, or a five-week low and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second successive day on Thursday. The momentum lifts spot prices back above the mid-1.2700s during the Asian session and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick.
As investors look past Thursday's upbeat US labor market report, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats further from the weekly high touched on Thursday and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. In fact, the US Department of Labor (DoL) reported that there were 233K initial jobless claims in the week ending August 3 as compared to expectations for a 240K print and 249K in the previous week. The upbeat reading eased concerns about an economic downturn in the world's largest economy, though dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to undermine demand for the buck.
The markets have fully priced in a 25-basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and have been speculating on the possibility of a 50-bps rate cut. This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields, which, along with a positive risk tone, exerts some downward pressure on the safe-haven Greenback. Any meaningful appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair, however, seems elusive in the wake of rising bets for two more interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2024. This, along with the ongoing riots in the UK, should hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the British Pound (GBP).
There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Friday, either from the UK or the US, leaving the GBP/USD pair at the mercy of the USD price dynamics. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register modest losses for the fourth straight week. The focus now shifts to the release of the UK monthly jobs data, due next Tuesday, which will be followed by the latest consumer inflation figures from the UK and the US on Wednesday. Apart from this, the monthly UK GDP print on Thursday should help in determining the next leg of a directional move for the currency pair.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD extends recovery beyond 1.0400 amid Wall Street's turnaround
EUR/USD extends its recovery beyond 1.0400, helped by the better performance of Wall Street and softer-than-anticipated United States PCE inflation. Profit-taking ahead of the winter holidays also takes its toll.
GBP/USD nears 1.2600 on renewed USD weakness
GBP/USD extends its rebound from multi-month lows and approaches 1.2600. The US Dollar stays on the back foot after softer-than-expected PCE inflation data, helping the pair edge higher. Nevertheless, GBP/USD remains on track to end the week in negative territory.
Gold rises above $2,620 as US yields edge lower
Gold extends its daily rebound and trades above $2,620 on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield declines toward 4.5% following the PCE inflation data for November, helping XAU/USD stretch higher in the American session.
Bitcoin crashes to $96,000, altcoins bleed: Top trades for sidelined buyers
Bitcoin (BTC) slipped under the $100,000 milestone and touched the $96,000 level briefly on Friday, a sharp decline that has also hit hard prices of other altcoins and particularly meme coins.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.