GBP/MXN Price Prediction: Bullish Pennant in doubt but not yet invalidated

GBP/MXN has corrected back after breaking out of a bullish Pennant pattern.
Further weakness could bring into doubt the validity of the pattern, whilst strength could still see it hit the target.

Joaquin Monfort FXStreet

GBP/MXN formed a bullish Pennant continuation pattern between August 28 and September 4, during its uptrend within a rising channel.

Price broke out of the top of the pattern and was expected to reach an upside target of 27.11, the 0.618 ratio of the length of the “pole” – the steep rise which preceded the formation of the pennant – extrapolated higher.

GBP/MXN 4-hour Chart

Price failed to reach its target, however, and has since fallen back down to trade in the lower 26.00s.

It is now at a critical point. Further weakness could invalidate the Pennant pattern, whilst a recovery could see it eventually reach its upside target.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has fallen to quite a deep bottom during the last sell-off (shaded orange circle) when compared to when price was at a similar levels previously. This suggests quite strong bearish momentum.

However, the trend both in the short, medium and long-term for GBP/MXN is bullish, and given “the trend is your friend” this suggests the odds favor more upside.

A close below 25.90 would probably invalidate the Pennant, whilst a recovery above 26.56 would provide confirmation the pair was rising up towards the pattern’s original target of 27.11.

Author

Joaquin Monfort

FXStreet

Joaquin Monfort is a financial writer and analyst with over 10 years experience writing about financial markets and alt data. He holds a degree in Anthropology from London University and a Diploma in Technical analysis.

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