GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Range-bound tilted upwards around 192.00
- GBP/JPY climbs 0.60%, nearing the 192.00 resistance as the Japanese Yen weakens.
- The pair has fluctuated between 190.00 and 193.00 for 17 days, with significant moves restricted by crucial technical points.
- Possible intervention from Japanese authorities may drive GBP/JPY down, aiming for initial support at the Ichimoku Cloud's top at 189.00.
The GBP/JPY edges higher during the North American session, up by 0.60%, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains the weakest currency on Monday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair exchanges hands at 191.92, shy of cracking 192.00.
GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook
During the latest 17-day span, GBP/JPY price action has remained within the 190.00-193.00 boundaries, unable to break below/above the first key support and resistance levels, keeping the pair range bound.
In the event of Japanese authority's intervention, the GBP/JPY might drop below 190.00, sending the pair tumbling toward the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) at 189.00, closely followed by the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 187.29.
On the other hand, buyers reclaiming 193.00 look for a challenge of the year-to-date (YTD) high at 193.54, ahead of 194.00.
GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
