GBP/JPY jumps back towards 182.50 hurdle despite upbeat UK Retail Sales, mixed Japan data

GBP/JPY consolidates intraday losses around the highest levels since December 2015 on upbeat UK Retail Sales numbers published early Friday morning in London. In doing so, the cross-currency pair also justifies downbeat Japan activity data amid the risk-off mood.

UK Retail Sales marks 0.3% monthly growth in May compared to 0.2% expected contraction and 0.5% previous increase. That said, the Retail Sales ex-Fuel numbers also rose past -0.3% market forecasts to 0.1% while staying below 0.7% prior readings.

That said, the preliminary readings of Japan’s Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for June dropped to 49.8 versus 50.7 expected and 50.6 prior. On the same line, the first estimations of the Asian major’s Jibun Bank Services PMI drops to 54.2 during the stated month, from 55.9 expected and 56.9 previous readings.

Earlier in the day, the BoE-induced recession woes prod the GBP/JPY bulls. The consolidation move also took clues from the mixed Japanese inflation numbers. That said, Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 3.2% YoY in May from 4.1% market forecasts and 3.5% prior whereas the National CPI ex Food, Energy, rose past 4.1% previous readings to 4.3% but lagged behind the 4.4% prior.

It’s worth noting that the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Japanese Government Bond (BoJ) issues also weighed on the GBP/JPY price as Tokyo opened.

That said, the Bank of England (BoE), informally known as the “Old Lady”, surprised markets by lifting benchmark rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 5% versus major expectations favoring a 0.25% rate hike on Thursday. The same joined the BoJ’s dovish bias to propel the GBP/JPY price. However, the OIS pricing of the BoE peak rate suggests a sooner end to the tightening cycle than expected, which in turn prods the pair buyers afterward. Additionally, the bumper rate hike also signals the economic toll amid the chatters of the British recession, which in turn challenges the bulls despite heavy rate hikes.

Looking ahead, the preliminary readings of the UK’s S&P Global/CIPS PMIs for June will be important to watch as the market’s fears of British recession challenge the cross-currency pair’s further upside at the multi-month high.

Technical analysis

Unless breaking the eight-day-old ascending support line, around 181.50 by the press time, not even intraday sellers of the GBP/JPY can take the chance of entering the short positions.