GBP/JPY extends gains to near 196.00 following solid UK Retail Sales data

GBP/JPY rises as UK Retail Sales unexpectedly grew by 0.3% MoM in September, defying market expectations of a 0.3% decline.
The Pound Sterling may struggle as the BoE faces increasing pressure to accelerate rate cuts following lower inflation and jobs data.
The Japanese Yen strengthened due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

GBP/JPY continues to rise for the second consecutive day, trading around 195.90 during the Asian session. The Pound Sterling (GBP) gained momentum following a solid Retail Sales report from the United Kingdom (UK) released on Friday.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK Retail Sales increased by 0.3% month-over-month in September, following a 1.0% rise in August. This was unexpected, as markets had anticipated a 0.3% decline for the month. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew by 3.9%, compared to a 2.3% increase in August. Core Retail Sales, excluding automotive fuel, also rose by 0.3% month-over-month, down from the previous 1.1% growth, but better than the forecasted -0.3%.

Despite the positive Retail Sales report, the British Pound may encounter challenges as the Bank of England (BoE) faces mounting pressure to expedite rate cuts. This pressure stems from recent economic data showing declines in Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures, along with disappointing labor market statistics.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained ground, partly due to verbal intervention from Japanese authorities. Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and the top foreign exchange official stated on Friday that recent movements in the Yen have been "somewhat rapid and one-sided," emphasizing that excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market is undesirable.

Additionally, a spokesman for the Japanese government highlighted the importance of stable currency movements that reflect economic fundamentals, noting that authorities are closely monitoring foreign exchange fluctuations, particularly any speculative activity, with a heightened sense of urgency.

Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to a year-on-year rate of 2.5% in September. Meanwhile, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food items, registered at 2.4%, a decrease from a 10-month high of 2.8%.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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