- GBP/JPY tested into the high end as the Yen recedes.
- UK Public Sector Net Borrowing declined sharply in January.
- UK PMIs due in Thursday, markets expected a mixed steady print.
GBP/JPY rotated on Wednesday, marking in a slight new high for the week as the Pound Sterling (GBP) gets a leg up from a broad-market pullback in the Japanese Yen (JPY). Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Swati Dhingra noted on Wednesday that the outlook for UK inflation remains bumpy, but downwards, noting that UK consumption still remains below pre-pandemic levels as the UK lags behind its developed economy cohorts in Europe and the US.
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, which tracks the UK government’s budget surplus or deficit, tumbled to its lowest print in at least fifteen years, showing a net decline of £-17.615 billion, far below the forecast £18.4 billion. The figure fell back from the previous MoM print of £6.451 billion, though the National Statistics office tracking of the UK’s federal budget is prone to revisions as time goes on.
Thursday brings the UK’s latest Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) figures for February, and markets are expecting the UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI to tick down to 54.1 from 54.3 MoM. The Manufacturing PMI component is forecast to see a slight improvement to 47.5 from 47.0, and the Composite UK PMI is expected to hold steady at 52.9.
February’s GfK Consumer Confidence slated for Friday is expected to see a slight improvement to -18.0 from -19.0 to round out the trading week, and Japan will be out for Thursday as the country celebrates Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s birthday.
GBP/JPY technical outlook
The Guppy continues to drift into the high end with the pair sticking close to its highest bids since 2015. The GBP/JPY continues to be bolstered by the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 189.00 in the near-term, and momentum is holding firmly in the bullish side despite slowing gains on the chart.
The GBP/JPY continues to test into the 190.00 major handle, and the pair sees firm technical support after rebounding from the 200-day SMA below 182.00 in early 2024. The pair remains up around 6% from December’s choppy swing low into 178.00.
GBP/JPY hourly chart
GBP/JPY daily chart
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