We've had a bullish view on EUR/GBP this year, largely because we had felt that the market was mispricing the Bank of England cycle, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
The 1.30 level looks vulnerable for GBP/USD
“We still believe that to be the case, but the problem is that the ECB cycle has moved substantially to the downside too as the ECB has proved more dovish than we were expecting.”
“For this week, we have four speeches from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. We still think the market is under-pricing the pace of the BoE easing cycle – and should Bailey add to some of his rare comments that the BoE could become more 'activist' in its easing, sterling could come under pressure.”
“That may more be felt against the dollar than the euro, with the 1.30 level looking vulnerable for GBP/USD. Thursday's release of the UK PMI should also have a big say on whether sterling continues to out-perform or perhaps succumbs to some dovish BoE rhetoric.”
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