GBP: BoE to cut, Bailey's communication key – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut rates by 25bp today, bringing the policy rate to 4.75%, ING’s FX Analyst Chris Turner notes.

Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference may impact GBP

“Most expect the vote count to prove 8-1 in favour of a cut, although the Pound Sterling (GBP) could quite easily receive a temporary boost if the vote is 7-2 or 6-3. More impactful for GBP, however, should be Governor Andrew Bailey's press conference. He's likely to be asked how stimulative he finds last week's UK budget.”

“Recall that the budget helped the market re-price the BoE easing cycle higher by some 25bp. And we think the market's pricing of the BoE lending rate at above 4.00% next year is too high. We think the BoE will cut more than that. We therefore think there is downside risk to UK rates and GBP today if Bailey downplays the significance of the UK budget to the BoE easing cycle.”

“That means EUR/GBP could enjoy a temporary spike back to the 0.8370/8400 area. Medium term, however, we increasingly expect EUR/GBP to prove a 0.82/83 story as the fall-out of trade wars weighs more heavily on the euro than the GBP.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1850 as US, China holidays keep trade muted

EUR/USD opens the week on a softer note, trading near 1.1860 during the Asian session on Monday. Activity is likely to remain muted, with United States markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while Mainland China is also shut for the week-long Lunar New Year break.

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK macro data and FOMC minutes

The GBP/USD pair kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range, just below mid-1.3600s, during the Asian session. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold remains below $5,050 despite Fed rate cut bets, uncertain geopolitical tensions

Gold edges lower after registering over 2% gains in the previous session, trading around $5,030 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the non-interest-bearing Gold could further gain ground following softer January Consumer Price Index figures, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates later this year.

Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.