Julien Manceaux, senior economist at ING, notes that in France, consumer confidence stabilised in August at 102 after a strong recovery in the last three months.
Key Quotes
“Fears of unemployment, in particular, have fallen thanks to the good private job creation figures over the first six months and the decline in unemployment to 8.5%. The figures from the INSEE survey published this morning, however, still show high saving intentions, which have not weakened since February.”
“The rise in consumer confidence has not yet pushed up consumer spending, which was still down for goods in June (and saw no growth in the second quarter). However, we continue to expect a rebound in the second half of the year.”
“The business climate also remained broadly stable in August. This survey continued to show weakening prospects for employment growth, confirming that improvements in the job market should come to an end, but only by early next year.”
“As a result, private consumption (which grew by only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter after 0.4% in the first) should pick up in the second half of the year. However, the base effect is significant and it is unlikely that this improvement will bring consumption growth above 1.2% in 2019, after only 0.9% in 2018.”
“Only when households feel that their savings are replenished will the measures taken have a greater effect on accelerating private consumption. That's why we expect 1.4% growth in 2020.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD languishes near multi-year lows below 0.6250 after dovish RBA Minutes
AUD/USD remains depressed below 0.6250 early Tuesday after the December RBA Minutes reiterated that upside inflation risks had diminished, which reaffirms bets for a rate cut in early 2025. This, along with concerns about China's fragile economic recovery and US-China trade war, undermines the Aussie and weighs on the pair.
USD/JPY eases toward 157.00 after Japanese verbal intervention
USD/JPY has come under renewed selling pressure, easing toward 157.00 after Japanese Finance Minister Kato's verbal intervention. The pair erased early gains, induced by the October BoJ meeting Minutes. However, the downside could be limited as the US Dollar hold the previous rebound.
Gold remains stuck between two key barriers amid thin trading
Gold price is attempting another run higher while defending the $2,600 threshold early Tuesday. In doing so, Gold price replicates the recovery moves seen in Monday’s trading, which eventually fizzled out on a broad US Dollar comeback in tandem with US Treasury bond yields.
Solana dominates Bitcoin, Ethereum in price performance and trading volume: Glassnode
Solana is up 6% on Monday following a Glassnode report indicating that SOL has seen more capital increase than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Despite the large gains suggesting a relatively heated market, SOL could still stretch its growth before establishing a top for the cycle.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.