Forex Today experienced re-emergence of the risk-off sentiment in Asia this Friday, as the Yuan’s weakness added to ongoing market woes and dragged the risk assets sharply lower. The Asian equities and the US indices futures stalled the bounce and resumed the recent sell-off while oil prices also extended the drop, as global growth concerns, US-China trade tensions and European political uncertainty continue curb risk.
The AUD/USD fell to the lowest levels since Feb 2016 near 0.7020 level while the Kiwi dropped -0.90% to 0.6470, 2-week lows. The safe-haven Yen also picked up a bid and pushed the USD/JPY lower towards the 112 handle. Gold traded better bid near 1235 levels, not benefiting from heightened risk-aversion. Both the EUR and GBP traded on the back foot, as the US dollar index traded near YTD highs.
Main Topics in Asia
Tokyo headline CPI comes in at 1.5% with mixed results
Fed’s Mester: US policy still accommodative, need to hike to neutral territory
China considers further tax cuts and potential VAT adjustment
NSIER: A no deal Brexit seen shaving 1.6 points off UK growth in 2019
China cuts Iran oil purchases ahead of US sanctions – WSJ
S&P 500 futures down nearly 1 percent as the Chinese yuan eyes 10-year lows
China and Japan sign agreement toward establishment of Yuan clearing bank
USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Eyes 7.00, PBOC fix likely bolstered the bullish chart setup
Key Focus ahead
We have a data-empty EUR calendar, as the dust settles over the ECB aftermath and markets digest the latest Brexit headlines, with the Brexit talks on hold, as the UK PM Mays team refused to agree on any plan. All eyes remain on the US Q3 GDP report alongside the release of the core PCE price index and a few minority reports for fresh US dollar trades. Also, in focus remains the speech by the ECB President Draghi, as markets await further insights on the central bank’s monetary policy.
EUR/USD: Weakness could accentuate on CNY slide, focus on US GDP
A below-forecast GDP reading would be USD-negative, still, the gains in the EUR/USD may be limited as a sharp slowdown in the world's biggest economy may not bode well for the already risk-averse equities.
GBP/USD to face further Brexit pressure ahead of US GDP figures
The economic calendar leaves the GBP completely unrepresented, and the Cable will be seeing market sentiment holding the reigns to end the week's trading, though US Preliminary GDP figures due at 12:30 GMT today will no doubt see plenty of Greenback-based action …
US GDP Preview - 4% Here We Come?
The US Department of Commerce will release its first estimate of the annualized gross domestic product for the third quarter on Friday, October 26th at 12:30 GMT, 8:30 am EDT.
How to trade the US GDP with EUR/USD
The final release of US GDP is closely watched to see if the robust growth number is confirmed. The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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