Forex today cheered a risk-friendly market environment, as the revival of hopes over the US-China trade resolution boosted the sentiment across Asia. Among the Asia-pac currencies, the Yen traded on the back foot amid risk-on action in the Asian equities, sending USD/JPY back near 109.50 levels. The Japanese benchmark, the Nikkei 225 index, rallied 1.30% to test the 20,700 level.
Meanwhile, the Antipodeans traded modestly flat, divided between China slowdown fears and US-China trade optimism. The Aussie kept its range around the 0.72 handle while its OZ neighbor, the Kiwi, hovered near 0.6760 region. The commodity-currencies were also unfazed by the rise in oil prices.
Main Topics in Asia
ECB rate hike on the backburner once again - Reuters poll
NBS: China revises 2017 GDP growth down to 6.8% y/y vs. 6.9% previous
Mnuchin, Treasury don't see eye-to-eye on China tariffs - Bloomberg
Japan’s Aso: Making changes to budget due to the wages issue
Gold Technical Analysis: break above $1,300 elusive despite "golden crossover"
BoJ vexed by inflation at seven-month low - Reuters
Fitch: Housing market risks through Asia-pac region are varied
China's Liu: China, Germany agree to lower entry barriers
OPEC and its allies to hold extraordinary general meeting on Apr. 17-18
Key Focus Ahead
Friday’s EUR macro calendar remains eventful, kicking-off with the Swiss producer and import prices due at 0815 GMT. Thereafter, the Eurozone current account figures will drop in at 0900 GMT. The key highlight this session would be on the UK retail sales data, although the impact of the data on the pound is likely to be limited, as the Brexit uncertainty continue to remain the exclusive driver. The UK retail sales for December is likely to drop by 0.8% m/m while steadying at 3.6% y/y.
In the NA session, the Canadian CPI data, due at 1330 GMT, will headline, followed by the US industrial production and UoM consumer sentiment data slated for release at 1415 GMT and 1500 GMT respectively. Meanwhile, for the oil traders, Bakers Hughes oil rigs count data due at 1800 GMT will hold a major significance. Apart from the economic data, the speech by the FOMC member Williams is seen at 1405 GMT.
EUR/USD holds below 1.14, economists push out the ECB rate hike forecast
The rising odds of the ECB rate hike delay could keep the EUR under pressure. As a result, EUR/USD is more likely to invalidate bearish exhaustion signaled by yesterday's doji with a move below 1.1370.
GBP/USD set for a challenge of 1.3000, lagging UK retail sales clouding the picture
Retail Sales data is slated for Friday morning, dropping at 09:30 GMT with December's annualized Retail Sales forecast to hold steady at 3.6%, but the decidedly mid-tier data is unlikely to drive much attention as markets remain focused on Brexit developments.
Canada’s inflation is expected to remain stable at 1.7% over the year in December, missing the official inflation target of 2% at the end of the year.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Preview: Lower is relative
The University of Michigan will release it Consumer Sentiment Index for January at 10:00 am EST 15:00 GMT on Friday January 18th.
The Partial US Government Shutdown: Much ado about politics
A quarter of the US government has been shuttered for a month and the economic impact is hard to discern.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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