Forex Today: US Retail Sales failed to hold back the US Dollar, eyes on NZ CPI


Here is what you need to know for July 19:

During the Asian session, eyes will be on the early data in New Zealand CPI that will be released just after the rollover in thin market conditions and when spreads will be irregular, making it a tricky event to trade. However, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) inflation target being around the midpoint of 2%, Statistics New Zealand’s quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) publication is still of high significance. The trend in consumer prices tends to influence RBNZ’s interest rates decision, which in turn, heavily impacts the NZD valuation. Acceleration in inflation could lead to a faster tightening of the rates by the RBNZ and vice-versa. Actual figures beating forecasts render NZD bullish.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar rose from a 15-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after core Retail Sales saw strong gains in June. Core sales showed resilience and increased 0.6% in June. Data for May was also revised slightly up to show core Retail Sales increasing 0.3% instead of the previously reported 0.2%. Two-year Treasury yields reversed a 9bp fall to a 2bp rise, while 2-year bund yields fell 9.4bp.

EUR/USD was down in late New York trade but overall little changed after failing to breakout of last week's highs again although hitting 1.12750, the highest since Feb. 2022 although failed to hold bullish above the 61.8% Fibo of the 2021-22 collapse at 1.1271.

USD/JPY  was higher after Ueda dashed hopes the BoJ would raise its JGB yield cap next Friday. Traders await Japan's CPI on Thursday, although Ueda's stance is more key. the pair is now supported and eyes a bullish correction into the sell-off. 

The Pound was pressured in what has been considered a highly overbought market and fell 0.25% vs. the Greenback while UK gilt yields were falling. Traders will be looking to Wednesday's UK core CPI which will be key with respect to the Bank of England, BoE, hiking by either 25bp or 50bp at August's meeting. GBP/USD is testing below 1.3050 and correcting into the daily trend's in-the-money longs. 

Elsewhere, Bitcoin, BTC/USD, was down $136.88 or 0.46% to $29794.96 in its worst three-day stretch since the three days ending July 7, 2023 when it fell 1.78%. It is down 1.74% over this three-day period. Gold prices rose to a six-week high after the United States reported Retail Sales rose less than expected last month. Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied sharply and garnered support from Alpha BBL's prediction that Wednesday's weekly EIA report for the week of July 14 will show crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, falling -3.3 million bbl. WTI rallied to a high of $75.92.


Like this article? Help us with some feedback by answering this survey:

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD under pressure below 1.0400 on persistent USD strength

EUR/USD under pressure below 1.0400 on persistent USD strength

EUR/USD remains deep in the negative territory below 1.0400 on Tuesday, erasing a portion of Monday's gains. The pair is undermined by risk aversion and the persistent US Dollar demand, fuelled by US President Trump's tariff threats.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD stays below 1.2300 after UK employment data

GBP/USD stays below 1.2300 after UK employment data

GBP/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades below 1.2300 on Tuesday as the USD preserves its strength following US President Trump's tariff threats. The data from the UK showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.4% in the three months to November.

GBP/USD News
Gold trades at multi-month highs above $2,720

Gold trades at multi-month highs above $2,720

Gold gathers bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since early November above $2,720 on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield is down more than 1% below 4.6% following US President Trump's tariff threats, helping XAU/USD hold its ground.

Gold News
Bitcoin fails to sustain the $109K mark after Trump’s inauguration

Bitcoin fails to sustain the $109K mark after Trump’s inauguration

Bitcoin’s price steadies above the $102,000 mark on Tuesday after reaching a new all-time high of $109,588 the previous day. Santiment’s data shows that BTC prices quickly corrected, as social media showed major greed and FOMO among the traders in Bitcoin after President Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Read more
Prepare for huge US trade changes as Trump goes America first

Prepare for huge US trade changes as Trump goes America first

You can be sure that big changes are coming as far as US trade is concerned, even if we didn't get any new tariffs on President Trump's first day in office. A comprehensive investigation into US trade relationships was initiated via a memorandum. China, Canada, and Mexico are clearly in the immediate firing line. 

Read more
Trusted Broker Reviews for Smarter Trading

Trusted Broker Reviews for Smarter Trading

VERIFIED Discover in-depth reviews of reliable brokers. Compare features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the perfect fit for your trading style, from CFDs to Forex pairs like EUR/USD and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures