Here is what you need to know on Thursday, May 2:
The US Dollar (USD) suffered large losses against its major rivals in the late American session on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve's (Fed) statement language and Chairman Jerome Powell's comments turned out to be not as hawkish as feared. Final revisions to HCOB Manufaturing PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone will be featured in the European economic docket. Later in the day, weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs data for the first quarter from the US will be watched closely by market participants.
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% as expected. In its policy statement, the Fed acknowledged that there has recently been a lack of further progress toward the 2% inflation target. Regarding the quantitative tightening strategy, the Fed noted that they will slow the decline of the balance sheet by cutting the Treasury redemption cap to $25 billion per month from $60 billion starting June 1. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Powell refrained from hinting at the timing of a policy pivot but said that it was unlikely that the next interest rate move would be a hike. "To hike, we'd need to see evidence policy is not sufficiently restrictive -- that's not what we see," he explained.
After fluctuating wildly during the press conference, the USD Index turned south and lost over 0.6% on a daily basis on Wednesday. Early Thursday, the index moves up and down in a tight channel above 105.50. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays in negative territory slightly above 4.6% and US stock index futures trade modestly higher.
US Dollar price this week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.11% | -0.17% | 0.45% | 0.05% | -1.82% | 0.17% | -0.21% | |
| EUR | 0.11% | -0.03% | 0.53% | 0.16% | -1.70% | 0.26% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.59% | 0.20% | -1.63% | 0.32% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.45% | -0.54% | -0.60% | -0.40% | -2.23% | -0.29% | -0.65% | |
| AUD | -0.05% | -0.14% | -0.20% | 0.40% | -1.83% | 0.11% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | 1.79% | 1.66% | 1.60% | 2.19% | 1.83% | 1.92% | 1.55% | |
| NZD | -0.19% | -0.26% | -0.32% | 0.27% | -0.12% | -1.96% | -0.34% | |
| CHF | 0.19% | 0.08% | 0.03% | 0.62% | 0.22% | -1.61% | 0.34% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Toward the end of the American session on Wednesday, USD/JPY fell nearly 400 pips in less than an hour. Although there is no official word yet, market participants see that move as a result of another intervention. After falling all the way to 153.00, USD/JPY recovered during the Asian trading hours and was last seen trading at around 155.50.
EUR/USD staged a decisive rebound on Wednesday and erased all of Tuesday's losses. The pair holds steady slightly above 1.0700 in the early European morning on Thursday.
GBP/USD spent the majority of the day below 1.2500 on Wednesday but closed above that level, supported by the USD weakness. The pair stays in a consolidation phase at around 1.2520 in the European session.
Gold benefited from the selling pressure surrounding the USD and retreating T-bond yields on Wednesday and settled above $2,300. XAU/USD struggles to preserve its bullish momentum and trades in the red slightly below $2,310 early Thursday.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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