Forex Today: US dollar corrects, US-Japan eye a trade deal, and Bitcoin bounces

US dollar reverses a part of Tuesday’s US retail sales data-led rally.
US-Japan working towards a trade deal by September.
Bitcoin recovers, but remains below the 10k mark.

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Here is what you need to know to start your day on Wednesday, July 17th, European session:

- Aussie fell from weekly highs on China’s Camsing fraud scandal news, Kiwi emerged the strongest in Asia.

- US-Japan eyeing a trade deal by September, Fitch affirmed Japan at ‘A’, outlook ‘Stable’, USD/JPY defended 108.00 amid mixed Asian equities.

- US dollar index pulled back from overnight highs amid falling Treasury, Gold traded modestly flat.

- UK: The Cable attempted recovery above 1.24 ahead of key UK CPI report, hard Brexit fears to remain a weight.

- Oil prices stabilized following the overnight dip to weekly lows, EIA stocks data eyed.

- Crypto bears took a breather. Bitcoin remained below 10k. US senators grilled Facebook on crypto plans, as political and regulatory scrutiny of coins intensified.

Economic events to watch

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Tuesday, Jul 16
24h	CLP Our Lady of Mount Carmel
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index	2.7%	-2.5%	-0.4%
15:30	USD 52-Week Bill Auction	1.915%		1.985%
17:00	USD Fed's Chair Powell speech
19:00	ARS Consumer Price Index (MoM)			3%
19:30	USD Fed's Evans speech
20:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$3.5B	$32.3B	$46.9B
20:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows	$32.9B	$13.1B	$-9.0B Revised from $-7.8B
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	-1.401M		-8.129M
Wednesday, Jul 17
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)	-0.08%		-0.08%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			1.7%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (YoY)		3.2%	3.8%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (MoM)		-0.1%	0.5%
07:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (YoY)		2.7%	2.7%
07:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
07:30	EUR ECB's Cœuré speech
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders s.a (MoM)		-1.4%	-2.4%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM)		-0.5%	-1.0%
08:00	EUR Industrial Orders n.s.a (YoY)		-4.2%	-0.2%
08:00	EUR Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY)		-2.5%	-0.7%
08:00	PLN Corporate Sector Wages		7.0%	7.7%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		2.9%	3.0%
08:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)		1.2%	1.4%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.1%	0.3%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a		1.7%	1.8%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a		0.1%	0.1%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a		1.7%	2.0%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a		0.5%	1.3%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a		-0.8%	0.0%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2%	2%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.8%	1.7%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.0%	0.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)		0.3%	0.3% Revised from -0.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)		1.1%	1.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.2%	1.2%
09:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)		2.4%	3.9%
09:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)		-0.70%	-0.81%
n/a	EUR 30-y Bond Auction			0.26%
10:00	EUR German Buba President Weidmann speech
10:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€-1.582B
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			-2.4%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)		1.6%	2.4%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			10.1%
12:30	USD Housing Starts Change		1.9%	-0.9%
12:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.261M	1.269M
12:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.300M	1.299M Revised from 1.294M
12:30	USD Building Permits Change			0.7% Revised from 0.3%
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)		1.6%	-0.6%
12:30	CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)		2.6%	2.1%
12:30	CAD BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)		0.1%	0.4%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.0%	2.4%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.3%
12:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)		-0.2%	0.4%
13:00	RUB Unemployment Rate		4.5%	4.5%
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change		-3.375M	-9.499M
18:00	USD Fed's Beige Book
23:50	JPY Imports (YoY)		-0.4%	-1.5%
23:50	JPY Exports (YoY)		-5.6%	-7.8%
23:50	JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total		¥420.0B	¥-968.3B Revised from ¥-967.1B
23:50	JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance		¥-524.8B	¥-609.1B
Thursday, Jul 18
01:00	KRW BoK Interest Rate Decision		1.75%	1.75%
01:30	AUD Fulltime Employment			2.4K
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.		10.0K	42.3K
01:30	AUD Part-Time Employment			39.8K
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.2%	5.2%
01:30	AUD Participation Rate		66%	66%
04:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			3.3%
06:00	CHF Trade Balance		3,013M	3,410M
06:00	CHF Exports (MoM)			21,485M
06:00	CHF Imports (MoM)			18,074M
n/a	IDR Bank Indonesia Rate		5.75%	6.00%
08:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)		2.0%	7.7%
08:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)		0.7%	1.4%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		-0.3%	-0.5%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		2.6%	2.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)		2.7%	2.2%
08:30	GBP BoE Credit Conditions Survey
08:30	HKD Unemployment rate			2.8%
n/a	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			0.257%
n/a	EUR 3-y Bond Auction			-0.408%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			-0.182%
n/a	ILS M1 Money Supply (MoM)			8.7%
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims		1.699M	1.723M
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average			219.25K
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims		215K	209K
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		5.0	0.3
12:30	CAD ADP Employment Change			-16K
13:00	ZAR SARB Interest Rate Decision		6.50%	6.75%
13:00	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$518.3B
13:30	USD Fed's Bostic speech
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change		73B	81B
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			2.135%
18:15	USD Fed's Williams speech
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate			2.5%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)		0.5%	0.4%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (MoM)		-0.1%	0.0%
23:30	JPY National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)		0.6%	0.5%
23:30	JPY National CPI ex-Fresh Food (YoY)		0.6%	0.8%
23:30	JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY)		0.7%	0.7%
23:50	JPY Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks			¥192.2B
23:50	JPY Foreign Bond Investment			¥297.1B
Friday, Jul 19
03:00	NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY)		5.4%	6.6%
04:30	JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM)		-0.2%	0.9%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		-0.2%	-0.1%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)		1.4%	1.9%
08:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)		4.9%	7.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€21B
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€19.2B
08:30	GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing		£3.200B	£4.463B
08:30	EUR Current Account (YoY)			€-1.4B
08:30	EUR Unemployment Rate		4.9%	4.9%
11:30	INR Bank Loan Growth			12%
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$429.91B
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)		0.4%	0.1%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	0.1%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			-7
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		98.6	98.2
15:00	COP Trade Balance			$-460.1M
15:05	USD Fed's Bullard speech
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			784
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC Net Positions			$17.2K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC Net Positions			$244.8K
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC Net Positions			390.1K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC Net Positions			£-73K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC Net Positions			¥-3.7K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC Net Positions			€-35.9K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC Net Positions			$-54K
20:30	USD Fed's Rosengren speech
Saturday, Jul 20
24h	COP Independence Day

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

Breaking: US and Israel attack Iran, risk aversion to sweep global markets

Early Saturday, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.