|

Forex Today: US Dollar consolidates weekly gains ahead of PCE inflation data

Here is what you need to know on Friday, October 27:

Financial markets stay relatively quiet early Friday as investors assess the latest macroeconomic events, while keeping an eye on developments surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict. In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. The US economic docket will also feature the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index for October.

The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the BEA reported on Thursday. This reading surpassed the market expectation for a growth of 4.2% and helped the US Dollar (USD) stay resilient against its rivals. In the meantime, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fell more than 2% on the day and limited the currency's gains. Early Friday, the USD Index consolidates its weekly gains above 106.50 and the 10-year yield fluctuates below 4.9%. Meanwhile, US stock index futures gain between 0.3% and 0.9% in the early European session, pointing to an improving risk mood on the last trading day of the week.

According to the latest reports, Israeli ground forces have carried out a large operation on Thursday, targeting Hamas positions in Gaza. In the meantime, the international community is urging Israel to have a temporary ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid to reach the region.

The European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged following the October policy meeting, as expected. During the press conference, President Christine Lagarde noted that it was premature to start talking about rate cuts and said that the decision to hold the policy steady did not necessarily mean that they will not hike again in the future. EUR/USD declined toward 1.0500 with the immediate reaction but managed to retrace its decline. Early Friday, the pair holds steady slightly above 1.0550.

GBP/USD failed to make a decisive move in either direction and ended the day virtually unchanged on Thursday. In the European morning, the pair moves up and down in a narrow band above 1.2100.

Following Thursday's volatile action, USD/JPY stabilized above 150.00 on Friday. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki declined to say whether the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency market and repeated that the excessive FX volatility is undesirable and policymakers will take thorough steps on FX with a strong sense of urgency.

Gold continued to edge higher as US Treasury bond yields turned south on Thursday. Early Friday, XAU/USD trades modestly higher on the day at around $1,990.

Author

Eren Sengezer

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

More from Eren Sengezer
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD ticks lower following the release of FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar found some near-term demand following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, with the EUR/USD pair currently piercing the 1.1750 threshold. The document showed officials are still willing to trim interest rates. Meanwhile, thinned holiday trading keeps major pairs confined to familiar levels.

GBP/USD remains sub- 1.3500, remains in the red

The GBP/USD lost traction early in the American session, maintaining the sour tone and trading around 1.3460 following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility.

Gold stable above $4,350 as the year comes to an end

Gold price got to recover some modest ground on Tuesday, holding on to intraday gains and changing hands at $4,360 a troy ounce in the American afternoon. The bright metal showed no reaction to the release of the FOMC December meeting minutes.

Ethereum: ETH holds above $2,900 despite rising selling activity

Ethereum (ETH) held the $2,900 level despite seeing increased selling pressure over the past week. The Exchange Netflow metric showed deposits outweighed withdrawals by about 400K ETH. The high value suggests rising selling activity amid the holiday season.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).