The Greenback traded slightly on the defensive against the backdrop of another session of muted price action in the FX galaxy. In the meantime, Chief Powell and President Lagarde left no room for surprises at their discussion panel at the ECB Forum. Meanwhile, investors get ready for a slew of US data releases on Wednesday, along with the FOMC Minutes, prior to the US Independence Day holiday and the UK general elections on July 4.
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, July 3:
The USD Index (DXY) maintained its bearish stance in place for the fourth session in a row, although navigating tight ranges and always below the 106.00 hurdle. A busy calendar on July 3 will see the release of weekly Mortgage Applications in the first turn, seconded by the ADP Employment Change and Balance of Trade. In addition, Initial Jobless Claims come later prior to the final S&P Global Services PMI, Factory Orders, the ISM Services PMI and the FOMC Minutes.
EUR/USD advanced modestly and revisited the 1.0750 zone amidst a generalized muted price action in the global markets. On July 3, the ECB Forum will enter its third day, while the final HCOB Services PMI in Germany and the broader euro bloc are due.
Everything was flat but GBP/USD on Tuesday, as the pair managed to print marked gains and extend its recovery for the fourth consecutive session. The final S&P Global Services PMI will be released on July 3.
USD/JPY advanced marginally on Tuesday, although it was enough to clinch another multi-decade top in the 161.70–161.75 band. The final print of the Jibun Bank Services PMI is expected on July 3.
AUD/USD remained sidelined in the sub-0.6700 region, managing to partially fade the negative start to the week. In Oz, the Ai Group Industry Index is due on July 3, ahead of the final Judo Bank Services PMI and preliminary readings of Building Permits and Retail Sales.
Prices of WTI rose to fresh three-month highs north of the $84.00 mark per barrel, just to give away all those gains and return to the sub-$83.00 region towards the end of the NA session on Tuesday.
Prices of Gold navigated a narrow range near $2,330 per ounce troy amidst the broader consolidative phase in place since mid-May. Silver, on the flip side, printed acceptable gains and extended its recovery for yet another session, retargeting the key $30.00 mark per ounce.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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