Here is what you need to know on Monday, November 11:
- Trade: The market mood is somewhat downbeat amid pessimism related to trade talks. President Donald Trump has yet to make a decision on a rollback of tariffs that China has demanded. He said that reports about progress to reach a deal have been incorrect, especially the level of tariffs removal. The Japanese yen and Gold are trying to recover.
- Fed speak: Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve branch in Boston, will speak in Oslo later in the day. He kicks off a busy week of speeches from Fed officials, culminating in Chair Jerome Powell's testimony.
- UK elections: Weekend opinion polls have been mixed, but the broad picture is of a solid lead for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives. The parties criticized each others' economic promises. See UK GDP Preview: GBP/USD may rise with Boris' hopes if upbeat forecasts are realized
- UK GDP: The UK publishes the first estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product, which is expected to show a return to growth after contracting in the second quarter. Manufacturing Production figures for September are also published.
- Spain: Elections in the fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone have resulted in a hung parliament for the second time this year. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has fewer options to cobble a government. The far-right Vox party has enjoyed substantial gains.
- Oil prices are off the highs as Saudi Aramco is set to begin its Initial Public Offering (IPO). Iran announced that it discovered a massive oilfield with reserves of 53 billion barrels, yet sanctions may prevent the field's development.
- Cryptocurrencies are extending their losses seen on Friday, with Bitcoin falling further away from $9,000.
- Bank holidays: France, the US, and Canada are off for Remembrance Day.
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Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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