The persistent buying pressure in the US Dollar weighed further on the risk-associated universe, against the backdrop of further signs of the loss of momentum in inflation on both sides of the Atlantic and steady bets of interest rate reductions by the Fed and the ECB at some point this summer.
Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 1:
Extra gains in the Greenback prompted the USD Index (DXY) to reclaim the 104.00 barrier and above, advancing for the third straight session. At the end of the week, the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is due in the first turn, seconded by Construction Spending, the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and the always-relevant ISM Manufacturing PMI. In addition, the Fed’s Williams, Logan, Waller, Bostic, Daly, and Kluger are all due to speak.
EUR/USD dropped further and challenged the key support at 1.0800 in response to further upside momentum in the US Dollar. In the euro area, preliminary inflation figures for the month of February will take centre stage on March 1, along with the Unemployment Rate and the final Manufacturing PMI in both Germany and the whole bloc.
GBP/USD deflated to multi-day lows and opened the door to a probable visit to the 1.2600 region sooner rather than later. Across the Channel, Nationwide Housing Prices and the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI are scheduled for March 1.
USD/JPY resumed the downward bias and revisited the 149.20 region in response to investors’ repricing of a potential BoJ lift-off sooner than anticipated. The Unemployment Rate and February’s Consumer Confidence are due in “The Land of the Rising Sun” on March 1.
AUD/USD loses further momentum and breaches the 0.6500 support on the back of Chinese concerns and Dollar strength. In Oz, Commodity Prices will be the sole release on Friday.
Investors’ attention is expected to refocus on China with the release of Manufacturing PMIs tracked by the NBS and Caixin on March 1. USD/CNH reversed a multi-day positive streak and dropped marginally to the 7.2100 zone on Thursday.
WTI prices extended further their erratic performance in the upper end of the recent range around the $78.00 mark per barrel.
Gold prices climbed to four-week highs and retested the $2,050 region per troy ounce amidst lower yields and despite decent gains in the Greenback. Silver followed suit and left behind three daily pullbacks in a row, approaching the $22.80 level per ounce.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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