What you need to take care of on Tuesday, August 2:
The greenback edged lower on Monday, although the slide pared mid-US session as Wall Street lost its earnings-inspired strength and lost some ground. Market participants remained focused on the risk of a global recession.
At the beginning of the day, China published the official NBS Manufacturing PMI, which contracted to 49 in July, worse than anticipated, while the services index came in better than expected, improving to 53.8. Also, S&P Global downwardly revised its Manufacturing PMIs for some European countries and the US.
The US July ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by less than anticipated, down from 53 in June to 52.8. A sharp drop in prices paid hints at easing inflationary pressures, but new orders also contracted, according to ISM, in line with increased risks of a recession.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note ticked lower and is currently around 2.59%, while the 2-year note yields 2.89%, unchanged for the day.
The EUR/USD pair neared the 1.0280 area again, finishing the day at 1.0255. GBP/USD extended gains beyond 1.2200, now changing hands at 1.2250. The AUD/USD pair trades above 0.7000 as market players await the RBA monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely anticipated to hike rates by 50 bps, although it is unclear if they can hike by more or less.
USD/CAD surged amid lower oil prices, ending the day at 1.2845. Crude oil prices edged lower, losing roughly 4% on Monday amid fears of easing demand, following weaker than expected Chinese figures released at the beginning of the day. WTI settled at $93.80 a barrel.
Gold continued to advance, reaching an intraday high of $1,775.43 a troy ounce, trading nearby early in the Asian session.
Safe-haven currencies advanced against the greenback. USD/CHF trades around 0.9500 while USD/JPY ended the day at 131.65.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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