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Forex Today: CHF weakest in Asia, eyes on German CPI, US Q2 GDP

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

FX today witnessed an eventful Asian session on the final trading day of this week, with plenty of economic data reported from the Japanese docket, offering limited support to the Yen bulls. The Japanese political headlines continued to weigh down on the sentiment around the local currency. The Aussie consolidated above 0.7950 levels, while the NZD/USD pair also traded modestly flat sub 0.75 handle. However, the main market mover this session was the Swiss Franc, which got heavily sold-off into Algo trading, with stops being hit across the board.

Main topics in Asia

Japan's inflation remains subdued, slight uptick in Tokyo CPI

Japanese inflation numbers came a touch higher than expected in Tokyo, while nationwide, the price levels continued to remain stagnant, with no improvements observed.

BOJ "Summary of Opinions": Additional easing not needed

The key headlines from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) summary of opinions (sort of early minutes) of the July meeting concluded last week, are crossing he wires via Reuters and Bloomberg.

US Senate joins House in passing new sanctions on Russia

The Senate overwhelmingly voted to impose new sanctions on Russia, joining the House in approving the measure by veto-proof margins.

Japan’s Defense Minister Inada steps down

Reuters out with latest headlines on the Japanese political scenario, citing that Japan’s Defense Minister Inada official announced her resignation at the presser.

USD/CHF clocks 13-month high, runs into 23.6% Fib R of 2000 high - 2011 low

The sell-off in the Swiss Franc in Asia pushed the USD/CHF to a 13-month high of 0.9718 - which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from the 2000 high to 2011 low.

Fonterra Australia raises farmgate milk prices for 2017-18 by 20 cents

Fonterra’s Australian operation has lifted its milk price by 20 cents due to improved market conditions.

Key Focus ahead

Looking ahead, the EUR calendar offers the key German prelim CPI data ahead of the Spanish CPI and GDP reports, while the UK docket remains data-empty. Meanwhile, the growth numbers from the US and Canada will drive the sentiment in the NA session. Besides, revised UoM consumer sentiment data and FOMC member Kashkari’s speech will also remain in focus.

EUR/USD: Recovery appears limited ahead of German CPI, US GDP

EUR/USD is looking to break higher from the overnight consolidation box and regain 1.1700 levels and beyond ahead of the German CPI and US Q2 GDP data due on the cards later today.

US GDP Q2 preview, first estimate to accelerate - Nomura

"Q2 GDP, first estimate: We expect real GDP growth to accelerate to 2.9% q-o-q saar in Q2 from 1.4% in Q1.”

Australia: Key events for the week ahead – Deutsche Bank

In view of analysts at Deutsche Bank, the key events over the week ahead for Australia will be the RBA's monthly board meeting and also the release of the August Statement on Monetary Policy.

NZ: 2Q labour market figures likely to show continuous rise in employment - Westpac

Satish Ranchhod, Senior Economist at Westpac, suggests that NZ’s June quarter labour market figures are likely to show that employment is continuing to rise, underpinned by firm economic activity.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Thursday, Jul 27
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY)	-0.1%	-0.1%	-0.2%
23:30	JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
23:30	JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY)	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade (YoY)	2.1%	2.3%	2.1% Revised from 2.0%
23:50	JPY Retail Trade s.a (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%	-1.6%
23:50	JPY Large Retailer's Sales	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.6%
23:50	JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
Friday, Jul 28
01:30	AUD Producer Price Index (YoY)	1.7%		1.3%
01:30	AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ)	0.5%	0.6%	0.5%
02:30	SGD Unemployment rate	2.2%		2.2%
05:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.5%	0.5%
06:00	NOK Retail Sales			1.3%
06:45	EUR Consumer Spending (MoM)		-0.2%	1.0%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		0.8%	0.8%
07:00	TRY Economic confidence index			98.9
07:00	DKK Industrial Outlook			2
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)		1.5%	1.6%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (QoQ)		0.9%	0.8%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product - Estimated (YoY)		3.1%	3.0%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.7%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			2%
07:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.4%
07:00	CHF KOF Leading Indicator		106.0	105.5
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (YoY)			2.4%
07:30	SEK Retail Sales (MoM)			0.4%
07:30	SEK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2.2%
07:30	SEK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.4%
08:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index			60.7
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment s.a			94.61K
08:00	NOK Registered Unemployment n.s.a			2.6%
08:30	EUR Business Confidence			2.1
08:30	EUR Consumer Confidence			1.7
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.15%
09:00	EUR Services Sentiment		13.2	13.4
09:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-1.7	-1.7
09:00	EUR Economic Sentiment Indicator		110.8	111.1
09:00	EUR Business Climate		1.12	1.15
09:00	EUR Industrial Confidence		4.3	4.5
n/a	EUR 10-y Bond Auction			2.16%
n/a	EUR 5-y Bond Auction			0.81%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			0.8%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			3.3%
n/a	RUB Interest rate decision			9%
n/a	INR FX Reserves, USD			$389.06B
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)		1.4%	1.5%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
12:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.5%	1.6%
12:00	EUR Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM)		0.3%	0.2%
12:00	TRY Foreign Arrivals			16.27%
12:00	BRL Unemployment Rate			13.3%
12:00	BRL Inflation Index/IGP-M			-0.67%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized		2.6%	1.4%
12:30	USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index		1.3%	1.9%
12:30	USD Employment cost index		0.6%	0.8%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)		1.2%	2.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)		0.8%	2.0%
12:30	CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM)		0.2%	0.2%
13:00	CLP Industrial Production (YoY)			1.9%
14:00	USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index		93.1	93.1
14:30	BRL Nominal Budget Balance			-66.989B
14:30	BRL Primary Budget Surplus			-30.7B
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			764
17:20	USD FOMC Member Kashkari Speech
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions			396.5K
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions			$60.1K
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions			$102.4K
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions			£-16.5K
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions			¥-126.9K
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions			€91.3K
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions			$51.4K
21:00	MXN Fiscal Balance, pesos			14.19B
Sunday, Jul 30
22:45	NZD Building Permits s.a. (MoM)			7%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)			-3.6%
23:50	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			6.5%
Monday, Jul 31
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI
01:00	CNY Non-manufacturing PMI			54.9
01:00	NZD ANZ Activity Outlook			42.8%
01:00	NZD ANZ Business Confidence			24.8
01:00	AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM)			1.1%
01:00	AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM)			0.1%
01:00	AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY)			2.3%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM)			0.4%
01:30	AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY)			5%
05:00	JPY Housing Starts (YoY)			-0.3%
05:00	JPY Construction Orders (YoY)			-0.5%
05:00	JPY Annualized Housing Starts			0.998M
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			4.8%
06:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			0.5%
06:00	ZAR M3 Money Supply (YoY)			5.98%
06:00	ZAR Private Sector Credit			6.69%
07:00	TRY Trade Balance			-7.31B
07:00	HUF Producer Price Index (YoY)			2.7%
08:00	EUR Unemployment			11.3%
08:00	EUR Current Account Balance			€0.448B
08:30	GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)			£5.3B
08:30	GBP Consumer Credit			£1.732B
08:30	GBP Mortgage Approvals			65.202K
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM)			-0.1%
08:30	GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY)			6.7%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)			-0.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)			1.2%
09:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			3%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			9.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.3%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)			1.2%
10:00	GBP Inflation Report Hearings
10:00	INR Federal Fiscal Deficit, INR			3,733.61B
n/a	INR Infrastructure Output (YoY)			3.6%
12:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.5%
12:00	PLN Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.2%
12:00	ZAR Trade Balance (in Rands)			9.49B
12:30	CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM)			-0.2%
12:30	CAD Raw Material Price Index			-1.8%
13:00	CLP Unemployment rate			7%
13:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.6%
13:45	USD Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index		61.5	65.7
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (YoY)			0.5%
14:00	USD Pending Home Sales (MoM)			-0.8%
14:00	USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index			15
n/a	USD Loan Officer Survey
15:00	COP National Jobless Rate			9.4%
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			1.18%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.13%
19:00	ARS Industrial Output n.s.a (YoY)			2.7%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth (YoY)			1.9%
23:00	KRW Consumer Price Index Growth			1.4%
23:30	AUD AiG Performance of Mfg Index			55
Tuesday, Aug 01
00:00	KRW Trade Balance			$10.77B
24h	CHF National Holiday
00:30	KRW Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI			50.1
00:30	JPY Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			52.2
01:45	CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI			50.4
04:00	IDR Core Inflation (YoY)			3.13%
04:00	IDR Inflation (MoM)			0.69%
04:00	IDR Inflation (YoY)			4.37%
04:30	AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision			1.5%
04:30	AUD RBA Rate Statement
05:00	PEN Inflation			-0.16%
05:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing			56
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)		-0.1%	1.1%
06:00	GBP Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)		2.7%	3.1%
06:30	AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY)			25%
06:30	SEK Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing (MoM)			62.4
07:00	PLN Purchasing Manager Index			53.1
07:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8.6%
07:00	EUR Unemployment			337.9K
07:00	HUF Purchasing Manager Index			57.2
07:00	HUF Trade Balance			€913M
07:15	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.7
07:30	CZK Markit PMI			56.4
07:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			55.2
07:45	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI		55.0	55.4
07:55	EUR Unemployment Change			7K
07:55	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a.			5.7%
07:55	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			58.3
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			50.5
08:00	EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI			56.8
08:30	GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.3
09:00	TRY Exports			$12.1B
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)			1.9%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)			0.6%
12:00	CZK Budget Balance			4.62B
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM)		0.1%	0.1%
12:30	USD Personal Income (MoM)		0.3%	0.4%
12:30	USD Personal Spending		0.2%	0.1%
12:30	USD Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
12:30	USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (YoY)			1.4%
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance EUR			€-34B
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			2.1%
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.3%
13:00	BRL Industrial Output (MoM)			0.8%
13:00	BRL Industrial Output (YoY)			4%
13:00	BRL HSBC PMI Manufacturing			50.5
13:00	ZAR Total New Vehicle Sales			45,369
13:30	CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI			54.7
13:45	USD Markit Manufacturing PMI			53.2
14:00	USD ISM Prices Paid		56.8	55.0
14:00	USD ISM Manufacturing PMI		55.6	57.8
14:00	USD Construction Spending (MoM)		0.4%	0.0%
14:00	NZD GDT Price Index			0.2%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.98%
n/a	USD Total Vehicle Sales			16.51M
20:00	ARS Tax Revenue (MoM)			226.59B
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-10.23M
21:00	KRW FX Reserves			380.57B
21:45	NZD Participation Rate			70.6%
21:45	NZD Unemployment Rate			4.9%
21:45	NZD Employment Change			1.2%
22:45	NZD Labour cost index (YoY)			1.5%
22:45	NZD Labour cost index (QoQ)			0.4%
23:00	GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)			-0.3%
23:01	EUR Consumer Confidence			105
23:50	JPY Monetary Base (YoY)			17%
Wednesday, Aug 02
01:30	AUD Building Permits (MoM)			-5.6%
01:30	AUD Building Permits (YoY)			-19.7%
05:00	JPY Consumer Confidence Index			43.3
05:45	CHF SECO Consumer Climate (3m)			-8
06:00	INR Reverse Repo Rate			6%
07:00	EUR Unemployment Change			-98.3K
07:00	EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting
07:15	CHF Real Retail Sales (YoY)			-0.3%
07:30	CHF SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index			60.1
08:30	GBP PMI Construction			54.8
08:30	HKD Retail Sales			0.5%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.4%
09:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.3%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			0.4%
11:30	INR M3 Money Supply			7.2%
12:15	USD ADP Employment Change		185K	158K
13:00	SGD Purchasing Managers Index			50.9
13:45	USD ISM NY index - Business Conditions			55.5
n/a	DKK Currency Reserves			463.9B
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-7.208M
18:00	BRL Trade Balance			7.2B
23:00	KRW Current Account Balance			4.52B
23:30	AUD AiG Performance of Services Index			54.8
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥1,178.6B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks
Thursday, Aug 03
01:00	NZD ANZ Commodity Price			2.1%
01:30	HKD Nikkei Manufacturing PMI			51.1
01:30	AUD Trade Balance			2,471M
01:30	AUD Imports			1%
01:30	AUD Exports			9%
01:45	CNY Caixin China Services PMI			51.6
05:00	EUR Purchasing Manager Index Services			57.6
06:00	RUB Purchasing Manager Index Services			55.5
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (YoY)			14.87%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (YoY)			10.9%
07:00	TRY Consumer Price Index (MoM)			-0.27%
07:00	TRY Producer Price Index (MoM)			0.07%
07:00	HUF Industrial Output (YoY)			8.8%
07:00	HUF Retail Sales (YoY)			5.4%
07:15	EUR Markit Services PMI			58.3
07:45	EUR Markit Services PMI			53.6
07:50	EUR Markit PMI Composite			55.7
07:50	EUR Markit Services PMI			55.9
07:55	EUR Markit Services PMI		53.7	53.5
07:55	EUR Markit PMI Composite		56.1	55.1
08:00	EUR Economic Bulletin
08:00	EUR Markit PMI Composite			55.8
08:00	EUR Markit Services PMI			55.4
08:30	GBP Markit Services PMI			53.4
09:00	EUR 10-y Obligaciones Auction			1.649%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)			2.6%
10:00	EUR Retail Sales (MoM)			0.4%
11:00	GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility		£435B	£435B
11:00	GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision		0.25%	0.25%
11:00	GBP Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
11:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged			5
11:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut			0
11:00	GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike			3
11:00	GBP Bank of England Minutes
11:30	USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY)			31.105K
11:30	GBP BOE's Governor Carney speech
12:00	CZK CNB Interest Rate Decision			0.05%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			244K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.964M
13:00	MXN Consumer Confidence			87.2
13:00	MXN Consumer Confidence s.a			84.4
n/a	RUB Central Bank Reserves $			$414.7B
13:45	USD Markit PMI Composite			54.2
13:45	USD Markit Services PMI			54.2
14:00	USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI		57.0	57.4
14:00	USD Factory Orders (MoM)		1.0%	-0.8%
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			17B
Friday, Aug 04
00:00	JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)			0.7%
01:30	AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)			0.6%
01:30	AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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