Forex Today witnessed two-way business in Asia on the first trading day of the week, with the risks sentiment driving the market sentiment amid a sell-off in the Chinese stocks, as China slowdown fears begin to bite again. Amidst risk-aversion, the US dollar traded well bid across the board, lending some support to the USD/JPY recovery, as the Yen markets cheer upbeat Japanese retail trade data.
However, the Antipodeans staged a solid comeback and tested highs towards the Asia closing, in the wake of a rally in the Aussie and NZ stocks while oil and gold prices traded modestly flat, having little impact on the commodity currencies. Meanwhile, both the EUR and GBP traded modestly flat, as the sentiment was dented by the German political uncertainty and looming Brexit woes.
Main Topics in Asia
Over the weekend: German election results putting pressure on Merkel
Brazil elections: Bolsonaro elected as president – Standard Chartered
Austrian FinMin Loeger: Greek debt crisis will not repeat itself in Italy
French FinMIn Le Maire: Eurozone is not sufficiently armed to face a new economic/ financial crisis
UK's Exchequer Hammond: May have to extend austerity measures if needed - Sky News
Japan Retail Trade comes in mostly better-than-expected, annualized in at 2.1%
PBOC drains 120 billion Yuan from the market
Asian stocks trade mixed after bearish close in S&P 500
Key Focus Ahead
Heading into a new week, the EUR calendar for Monday remains data-light, with nothing of relevance, except for the UK mortgage approvals and CBI Distributive trade survey. The UK Annual Budget report will be published by the UK Chancellor Hammond, who will deliver the budget speech around 1530 GMT. Also, the European Commission’s Eurozone economic growth forecasts report will be released by 1000 GMT, which could offer some incentives to the EUR traders.
The NA session headlines the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (YoY) for the month of September, which is seen arriving at 2%. The FOMC member Evans speech is due at 1345 GMT, followed by the Dallas Fed manufacturing business index at 1430 GMT.
EUR/USD: Risk-off and political uncertainty in Germany may keep EUR under pressure
The EUR/USD picked up a bid on Friday, courtesy of broad-based losses in the greenback. The USD may remain bid on risk aversion and political uncertainty in Germany could keep the EUR under pressure.
GBP/USD holding above 1.2800 ahead of UK budget speech, US consumer spending data
Monday is slated to see the latest Annual Budget from the Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond, and the chancellor is expected to unveil key details from the UK's budgetary outlook, somewhere around 15:30 GMT.
Gold: bulls have eyes set on $1,248 target
Spot gold is making higher lows even when the dollar is strong, picking up the safe haven flows following the latest drop in global equities.
With the Bank of England expected to remain dazed and confused with Brexit uncertainty and to hold back in terms of action, the US economic development is expected to support the US Dollar further in the upcoming week with the US labor market report expected …
Asia week ahead: Eyes on China - ING
Analysts at ING Bank explained that there will be a lot of focus on China data this week.
The week ahead: US jobs, BoE and BoJ headlining - Nomura
"The week ahead We expect a healthy 175k gain in nonfarm payroll employment, solid wage growth and moderating manufacturer sentiment.”
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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