Forex today in Asia this Tuesday was characterized by slowing volumes and minimal volatility amid holiday-thinned markets, with China still closed in observance of Labour Day. On the data front too, we had second-liner releases, which had little impact on the Asia-pac currencies, as the USD dynamics continued to play a vital role across the fx board.
Despite firmer USD and Treasury yields, the Antipodeans traded on the front foot. However, the Aussie remained little-moved by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) status-quo. The Kiwi kept leaning on the crucial support of 0.7032 while USD/JPY advanced closer to the midpoint of the 109 handle.
Among other related markets, the Asian equities traded mostly higher while oil prices picked up some strength, following the overnight comments from the Israeli PM Netanyahu. Gold prices hovered near six-week lows amid increased nervousness ahead of the FOMC decision.
Main topics in Asia
BOJ maintains JGB buy amounts in regular operation for May
Heading into a new month, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) makes an announcement that it pledges to leave the Japanese Government Bond (JGBs) purchase amounts unchanged for the month of May, with the key details found below.
EU's Barnier pushing for rapid Irish border resolution - Reuters
As reported by Reuters, The European Union's head Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is confident that a solution for the Irish border can be achieved if progress is made by June, but stipulated that there is still a risk of the UK leaving the EU without a firm deal in place.
US House to vote on Dodd-Frank changes in May - Reuters
According to reporting by Reuters, the US House of Representatives may be geared to vote as soon as May on a bill that will relax banking rules that were put in place after the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
US Trump postpones tariff decision until June
The White House is announcing that US President Trump has decided to postpone making a final decision on permanent exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs for US allies until June 1st.
NZ FinMin: 2018 budget will deliver a surplus
New Zealand's Finance Minister Robertson has announced that New Zealand's government budget for 2018 will be delivering a surplus for fiscal year 2018.
White House now says Iran had a robust, clandestine nuclear weapons program
White House is out with the latest statement on Iran’s nuclear program, with a subtle revision in the wording, Reuters reports.
RBA steers rates on a steady course, as widely expected
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its monetary policy meeting today, left the official cash rate (OCR) unadjusted at a record low of 1.50% for the nineteenth meeting in a row.
RBA: Housing markets have slowed in Sydney, Melbourne
Following are the key headlines from the RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters) …
Key Focus ahead
Most major European markets are closed today in observance of Labor Day, leaving the EUR, GBP traders at the mercy of the dollar trades and risk trends. However, the UK manufacturing PMI and net lending to individuals data could provide some incentives to the GBP markets ahead of the scheduled speech by the RBA Governor Lowe.
Moving on, the NA session remains eventful, with the Canadian GDP on the cards, followed by the manufacturing PMI reports from Canada as well as the US. However, the US ISM manufacturing PMI will hog the limelight among other minority reports. Also, of relevance remains the NZ GDT price index, which could have a major impact on the Kiwi heading into the NZ jobs and China Caixin manufacturing PMI data slated for release on Wednesday early Asia.
EUR/USD has eyes on 1.20 ahead of US ISM, FOMC on the horizon
Tuesday promises to be a volume-thin day with the major European markets shuttered for Labor Day; institutional market participants will be missing from the action, but the Dollar side is still looking alive this week after the pair fell again on Monday, keeping the bearish pressure on the Euro.
GBP/USD: Bearish bias still intact ahead of UK PMI
Despite a minor bounce, the GBP/USD pair remains vulnerable and looks to breach the March low of 1.3712, as markets expect the UK manufacturing sector activity to decelerate in April.
EURJPY: Sell rallies toward 133.05
EURJPY traded quietly in the 350 pips' range last month. We see a potential Quarterly bearish outside bar. Price still failed to close above monthly Ichimoku cloud.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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