The overnight recovery in the US dollar regained traction in the Asian session this Tuesday, as the Antipodeans slipped following the releases of a string of mixed Chinese macro data. The Aussie dropped back to test the 0.75 handle, as the bulls also failed to find any impetus from the RBA May’s meeting minutes. The USD/JPY pair neared the 110 handle amid resurgent USD demand across the board, having ignored the negative performance on the Asian equity markets.
Among the commodities, gold prices on Comex traded weaker near $ 1310 mark while oil prices hovered near multi-year tops and remain on track to break into new tops, as the bulls continue to cheer the latest OPEC report.
Main topics in Asia
Fed's Clarida: intends to take a balanced approach to Fed goals
Fed Vice Chair hopeful Richard Clarida is expected to deliver a prepared testimony regarding his possible confirmation before the US Senate on Tuesday.
RBA's Debelle: The Outlook for the Australian Economy speech's headlines
RBA's Debelle has been hitting the wires with a speech on the outlook for the Australian economy.
Goldman Sachs warns markets 'complacent' over Italian political risk
The investment Goldman Sachs believes the equity markets have become complacent to Italian political risks.
RBA minutes: More likely next cash rate move is up rather than down
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting today, with the key highlights found below (courtesy Reuters).
China April data dump: Industrial production – a big beat, Retail sales disappoint
China’s April retail sales YoY, the number came in at +9.4% vs 10.0% exp and 10.1% last, with industrial output YoY at 7.0% and 6.3% exp and 6.0% last.
China unlikely to satisfy US requests to reduce its trade surplus by $200 bn by 2020 – Moody’s
The US-based rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service, is out with their assessment on the China-US trade dispute, outlining the probable scenarios.
Key Focus ahead
We have plenty of event risks, as we head into early Europe, with the German prelim GDP data to be reported at 0600 GMT while the Swiss PPI will be released at the European open. The main focus will be on the BOE’s inflation report hearings and the UK labor markets report, with the key earnings data to drive the GBP trades this Tuesday. Also, of note remains the Eurozone flash GDP, industrial production and German ZEW business surveys, all of which will be published at 0900 GMT.
Moving on, the US docket sees the release of the critical retail sales report alongside the Empire State manufacturing index while other minority reports are also on the cards from the US. New Zealand’s GDT price index and FOMC member Williams speech will also draw some attention later in the NA session.
EUR/USD: Conflicting signals ahead of EZ GDP and US retail sales
The spread will likely drop further in the EUR-positive manner if the German ZEW survey and the Eurozone Q1 GDP paint a positive picture of the economic activity and the US retail sales miss estimates. In such a case, the EUR/USD will likely find acceptance above 1.20.
GBP/USD remains in familiar territory ahead of UK earnings, bulls fear a blowout
Today brings the UK's jobs figures for the first quarter of 2018 into March, which drop at 08:30 GMT. Average Earnings excluding bonuses is expected to tick up slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%, while Average Earnings with bonuses is expected to contract, from 2.8% to 2.6%.
North, South Korea to hold high-level inter-Korea talks on May 16
South Korea’s Unification Ministry said in a statement, cited by Reuters, North Korea and South Korea agreed on Tuesday to hold high-level inter-Korea unification talks on May 16th.
Oil holds near Nov. 2014 highs, eyes bull flag breakout
The cartel revised higher its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 25,000 barrels per day - a bullish development for oil markets. However, the cartel also revised higher the non-OPEC supply forecast by 10,000 barrels per day, which does not come as a surprise given the rising US oil output. Hence, oil remains bid and on the hunt for fresh 3.5-year highs.
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EUR/USD treads water just above 1.0400 post-US data
Another sign of the good health of the US economy came in response to firm flash US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which in turn reinforced further the already strong performance of the US Dollar, relegating EUR/USD to the 1.0400 neighbourhood on Friday.
GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
Gold keeps the bid bias unchanged near $2,700
Persistent safe haven demand continues to prop up the march north in Gold prices so far on Friday, hitting new two-week tops past the key $2,700 mark per troy ounce despite extra strength in the Greenback and mixed US yields.
Geopolitics back on the radar
Rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine caused renewed unease in the markets this week. Putin signed an amendment to Russian nuclear doctrine, which allows Russia to use nuclear weapons for retaliating against strikes carried out with conventional weapons.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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