Forex Today: Aussie drops and pops on mixed Australian data; ECB in spotlight


Forex today experienced risk-off market profile, as reflected by mostly lower Asian equities and US equity futures amid a lack of progress on the US-China trade front and reports that Huawei filed a suit against the US government.

As a result, the safe-haven demand for the Yen remained underpinned, with the USD/JPY pair meandering near 111.70 levels. Meanwhile, the Aussie enjoyed good two-way business following the mixed Australian retail sales and trade figures but the upside remained limited by 0.7050 levels, as RBA rate cut calls loom. The Kiwi emerged the top gainer and headed to the 0.68 handle amid the latest leg up in oil prices. Gold futures on Comex attempted a corrective bounce in a bid to regain the 1290 barrier.  

Main Topics in Asia

UK urged to table 'acceptable' backstop remedies – BBC

Aussie data dump: Retail Sales (a miss of 0.2%) and Trade Balance - AUD lower

China Central Bank to skip open market operations today

China's Finance Minister: Tax cuts are a top fiscal priority in 2019

WTI creeping up towards the hourly cloud resistance, bulls eye a break to $57.85/93 double-tops

UK Cabinet expects Brexit deal defeat nest week – UK Telegraph

Gold teasing corrective bounce amid the drop in equities

EU is pessimistic that a Brexit breakthrough is in reach - Bloomberg

Indian Rupee to weaken over 1% to 71.28 in 12 months – Reuters poll

Huawei sues US Govt saying ban on its equipment is unconstitutional - Reuters

US Pres. Trump: China trade talks going well, predicts 'good deal' or no deal

USD/INR prints two-month low below 70

Saudi's Energy Minister: Kingdom is exporting 7-8 mln bpd of crude - Okaz

Key Focus Ahead

Markets gear up for a busy EUR calendar, with the ECB monetary policy decision (due at 1245 GMT) and Draghi’s presser (at 1330 GMT) likely to be the main event risks, as the Brexit deal/ no deal drama continues. The ECB is likely to leave the monetary policy settings unchanged amid weakening Eurozone economic growth but markets will watch out for any changes in the TLTROs and interest rates forward guidance for fresh EUR trades.

On the data front, the Swiss Feb jobless rate will drop in at 0645 GMT, followed by the UK Halifax house price index at 0830 GMT. At 1000 GMT, the Eurozone final Q4 GDP report will be published that is likely to have virtually no impact on the EUR markets. From the NA docket, the weekly jobless claims and Canadian building permits data will be published at 1330 GMT. Later in the American afternoon, New Zealand’s manufacturing sales report for Q4 will be released at 2145 GMT.

Besides the macro news, we have a slew of central bankers” speeches scheduled, noted below.

0930 GMT: BOE's Tenreyro

1330 GMT: ECB President Draghi

1715 GMT: Fed’s Brainard

1745 GMT: BOC's Patterson

EUR/USD market turns indecisive ahead of ECB, today's close pivotal

The shared currency will likely pick up a strong bid, if the ECB's projections match market expectations and the central bank refrains from introducing another dovish tweak to its forward guidance, having accepted in December that balance of risks are moving to the downside. 

GBP/USD: Greenback’s profit booking gains attention over Brexit noise, 1.3190 in focus

Traders gave less importance to the recent Brexit reports as the US Dollar pullback seems to dominate sentiment ahead of Friday’s key employment report. Also, in attention will be Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims from the US.

ECB Preview: Lower macro projections set the stage for a prolonged period of policy stand-off

The ECB Governing Council is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged while downgrading its near-term growth and inflation forecasts provided in staff macroeconomic projections.           

US/China Trade Wars: Trump will meet Mnuchin at 11am Thursday local time (1600GMT)

Trump will meet Mnuchin at 11am Thursday local time (1600GMT). The news comes after the US trade gap with China hit a record level, in a blow to president Trump’s America First policies.

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Thursday, Mar 07
06:45
 
2.4%
2.4%
08:00
 
 
742B Revised from 741B
08:30
 
1.0%
0.8%
08:30
 
0.1%
-2.9%
09:30
 
 
10:00
 
1.2%
1.2%
10:00
 
0.2%
0.2%
10:00
 
1.2%
1.2%
10:00
 
0.3%
0.3%
12:30
 
 
52.988K
12:45
 
-0.4%
-0.4%
12:45
 
0%
0%
13:30
 
1.775M
1.805M
13:30
 
225K
225K
13:30
 
1.6%
2.3%
13:30
 
1.6%
0.9%
13:30
 
 
13:30
 
-5%
6%
15:30
 
 
-166B
16:30
 
 
2.41%
17:15
 
 
17:45
 
 
19:00
 
$16.00B
$16.55B
21:45
 
 
-1.6%
23:30
 
-0.4%
0.1%

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.0850 despite weak US employment data

EUR/USD retreats toward 1.0850 despite weak US employment data

EUR/USD loses its traction and declines toward 1.0850 after testing 1.0900 earlier in the session. Because Nonfarm Payrolls data for October missed the market expectation by a wide margin due to hurricanes and strikes, the US Dollar manages to hold its ground.

EUR/USD News
GBP/USD climbs above 1.2950, looks to end week little changed

GBP/USD climbs above 1.2950, looks to end week little changed

GBP/USD benefits from the improving risk mood and trades in positive territory above 1.2950 in the American session on Friday as markets ignore the weak labor market data from the US. The pair remains on track to end the week flat.

GBP/USD News
Gold clings to small gains near $2,750 after US data

Gold clings to small gains near $2,750 after US data

Gold clings to marginal recovery gains and trades slightly above $2,750. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield struggles to push higher after the dismal October jobs report and weaker-than-expected PMI data from the US, helping XAU/USD keep it footing.

Gold News
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Run toward fresh all-time high hinges on US presidential election results

Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Run toward fresh all-time high hinges on US presidential election results

Bitcoin could experience a price pullback in the next few days ahead of the US presidential election, analysts say, an event that will be key to determining whether and how the crypto class will be regulated in the years to come.

Read more
Bank of Japan holds rates steady amid signs of modest GDP growth

Bank of Japan holds rates steady amid signs of modest GDP growth

Monthly industrial production results have been mixed but generally indicate a modest recovery in third-quarter GDP. Clear guidance from the Bank of Japan remains elusive, with each upcoming meeting being pivotal.

Read more
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads

VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.

Read More

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures