FOMC preview: All eyes on the 2019 dot plot - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities (TDS) offer a detailed preview of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy announcement that is scheduled at 1800GMT. 

Key Quotes:

“Public comments from several Fed officials since the January FOMC meeting strongly suggest fewer projected hikes for 2019. 

We expect the median will fall from two in the December 2018 dot plot to one in March - but it is fairly unlikely that the median will decline to no hikes in 2019. 

There is hardly any chance Fed officials will put cuts into their 2019 policy projections, despite market pricing.

We also expect the median dots for 2020 and 2021 to no longer suggest hiking beyond a neutral range. 

…  a consequence of …  the lower projected path for core inflation.

In effect, we are looking for a flat rate path in the dots after one more hike this year.

For the longer-run dots, we do not expect a material change in the distribution, with nearly all (if not all) participants submitting values between 2.5% and 3% -thus keeping the median at 2.75%.

Despite Chair Powell conceding that the dot plot has been an occasional source of "confusion" for markets, we do not anticipate any substantive change to the way the dots are delivered at the upcoming March FOMC meeting.”