Citing sources with direct knowledge of the European Central Bank (ECB) thinking, Reuters reported on Wednesday that the “Eurozone growth is expected to take a bigger hit from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs than the ECB earlier estimated.”
Additional takeaways
“Initial ECB estimate of 50 bps hit to growth in first year under revision.”
“One source estimates growth hit in excess of 100 bps in first year.”
Market reaction
At the time of writing, EUR/USD is sustaning the pullback from near 1.1100 levels, still up 0.66% so far.
GDP FAQs
A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.
A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.
When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD consolidates near 1.1350 amid a quiet start to a Big week
EUR/USD keeps its range play intact near 1.1350 in Monday’s European session. The upbeat market mood and easing US Dollar demand fail to provide lift to the main currency pair amid a quiet start to a critical week ahead.
GBP/USD recaptures 1.3300 as US Dollar buying stalls
GBP/USD has picked up fresh bids and regained the 1.3300 mark in the European trading hours on Monday. A pause in the US Dollar advance and a mildly positive risk sentment help the pair recover ground. However, the technical outlook on the daily time frame suggests a weakening bullish trend.
Gold price hangs above $3,265-3,260 support amid receding safe-haven demand and mildly positive USD
Gold price sticks to its bearish bias for the second successive day on Monday and trades just above the $3,265-3,260 pivotal support during the first half of the European session. Despite of mixed signals from the US and China, the optimism over the potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies turns out to be a key negative factor.
Monero Price Forecast: XMR soars over 50% amid rising demand for privacy coins
Monero (XMR) price is extending its gains by 50% at the time of writing on Monday, following a 9.33% rally the previous week. The main reason for XMR’s rally is speculation that the token, which is widely known for its status as a privacy coin, was used to launder a suspected theft involving 3,520 BTC worth $330.7 million.
Week ahead: US GDP, inflation and jobs in focus amid tariff mess – BoJ meets
Barrage of US data to shed light on US economy as tariff war heats up. GDP, PCE inflation and nonfarm payrolls reports to headline the week. Bank of Japan to hold rates but may downgrade growth outlook. Eurozone and Australian CPI also on the agenda, Canadians go to the polls.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.