European gas dips, but structural risks remain – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

European natural gas prices plunged almost 4% yesterday as storage continues to build. Gas inventories stand at 37% full after bottoming out at less than 34% full in late March, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

EU mulls ban on Russian spot LNG amid gas market calm

"However, storage levels are below last year’s levels and lower than average. Meanwhile, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) forward curve continues to move towards a more normal shape, with summer prices trading at a discount to winter prices. Behind this move are broader demand concerns and the potential for flexibility in EU storage targets."

"The EU is reportedly discussing a potential ban on spot purchases of Russian gas to help reduce the region’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels. Possible actions to be taken are expected to be presented to EU members on 6 May. Russia is still a large supplier of natural gas to the region."

"While Russian pipeline flows have fallen significantly in recent years, Russian LNG arrivals into Europe have grown. The fact that the EU is looking at options to reduce flows suggests that a return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe as part of a Russia/Ukraine peace deal is unlikely."

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