- EUR/USD struggles to sustain above 1.0950 as the US Dollar performs strongly ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
- Traders have priced out Fed large rate cut bets for November.
- The ECB is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 bps in the last quarter of the year.
EUR/USD skates on thin ice near the eight-week low of 1.0950 in Wednesday’s European session. The Euro (EUR) faces selling pressure as traders have priced in more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate further by 50 bps to 3% by the year-end, suggesting that there will be a rate cut of 25 bps in each of the two policy meetings scheduled for next week and in December.
The ECB has already reduced its key borrowing rates by 50 bps this year as officials have remained confident that inflation will return to the bank’s target of 2% in 2025. Market expectations for the ECB to cut interest rates further have been prompted by the declining trend in price pressures and the economic vulnerability in the Eurozone.
ECB policymaker and Governor of the Greek Central Bank Yannis Stournaras has also backed two more rate cuts in each of the remaining meetings this year and emphasized the need to reduce them further in 2025 as inflation continues to decelerate, in his comments in an interview with Financial Times published on Wednesday. His comments also indicated that price pressures are declining faster than what the ECB forecasted in September.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.34% | 0.15% | 0.18% | 0.91% | 0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.20% | -0.02% | 0.13% | -0.07% | 0.02% | 0.67% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.18% | 0.02% | 0.16% | -0.01% | 0.04% | 0.70% | -0.15% | |
| JPY | -0.34% | -0.13% | -0.16% | -0.18% | -0.14% | 0.56% | -0.32% | |
| CAD | -0.15% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.74% | -0.13% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.02% | -0.04% | 0.14% | -0.03% | 0.68% | -0.20% | |
| NZD | -0.91% | -0.67% | -0.70% | -0.56% | -0.74% | -0.68% | -0.87% | |
| CHF | -0.04% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.32% | 0.13% | 0.20% | 0.87% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD declines as US Dollar rallies further
- EUR/USD stays under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) extends its previous week’s rally further, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising above the seven-week high of 102.70.
- The Greenback has strengthened as traders have priced out expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates again by 50 basis points (bps) in November. Traders were forced to unwind Fed large rate cut bets as the upbeat United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September diminished downside risks to economic growth and consumer spending. Also, dismal market sentiment due to Middle East tensions has improved the Greenback’s appeal as a safe haven.
- Financial market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in the remaining two policy meetings this year at the time of writing, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- In Wednesday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes of the September meeting, which will be released at 18:00 GMT. The FOMC Minutes will convey the views of all officials on the interest rate and the economic outlook. In the September meeting, all members unanimously voted to start the policy-easing cycle with a 50-bps rate cut, except Fed Governor Michelle Bowman who favored a smaller reduction of 25 bps.
- Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD sees more downside below 1.0950
EUR/USD struggles to hold the immediate support of 1.0950. The major currency pair stays on the backfoot as it has delivered a breakdown of the Double Top chart pattern formation on a daily timeframe. The above-mentioned chart pattern was triggered after the shared currency pair broke below the September 11 low of 1.1000.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) settles inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting more weakness ahead for EUR/USD.
Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the 200-day EMA around 1.0900. On the upside, the 20-day EMA at 1.1090 and the September high around 1.1200 will be major resistance zones.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops toward 1.0950 on tepid risk sentiment
EUR/USD is seeing a fresh selling wave toward 1.0950 in the European session on Wednesday, as the US Dollar resumes upside amid lingering Chinese economic concerns and the Middle East escalation. The focus now stays on the ECB/ Fed-speak and the FOMC Minutes.
GBP/USD sits at multi-week low below 1.3100, awaits FOMC minutes
GBP/USD is trading close to multi-week lows below 1.3100 in the European trading hours on Wednesday. The US Dollar adds to recent gains amid risk aversion, awaiting the Fed Minutes for a fresh directional impetus in the pair.
Gold price extends losing spell amid upbeat US Dollar ahead of FOMC Minutes
Gold price extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive trading day on Wednesday. The precious metal has been battered by the upbeat US Dollar, which has strengthened as traders are pricing out another Fed larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 bps in their next meeting in November.
BTC on-chain metrics show weakness in institutional demand
Bitcoin price stabilizes around $62,000; a firm close below would suggest a decline ahead. US Spot Bitcoin ETF data recorded an outflow of $58.20 million on Tuesday, while the Coinbase Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index is falling.
RBA widely expected to keep key interest rate unchanged amid persisting price pressures
The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue bucking the trend adopted by major central banks of the dovish policy pivot, opting to maintain the policy for the seventh consecutive meeting on Tuesday.
Five best Forex brokers in 2024
VERIFIED Choosing the best Forex broker in 2024 requires careful consideration of certain essential factors. With the wide array of options available, it is crucial to find a broker that aligns with your trading style, experience level, and financial goals.