EUR/USD: Unlikely to break above the major resistance at 1.0450 – UOB Group

There is a chance for the Euro (EUR) to retest the 1.0430 level against the US Dollar (USD), but it is unlikely to break above the major resistance at 1.0450. In the longer run, the outlook remains unclear; price movements are likely to stay within a 1.0250/1.0450 range for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook remains unclear

24-HOUR VIEW: "After EUR rose sharply to 1.0380 two days ago, we indicated yesterday that EUR 'is likely to trade with an upward bias.' However, we pointed out that 'it does not appear to have enough momentum to break clearly above 1.0405.' We also pointed out that 'support is at 1.0340; a breach of 1.0315 would indicate that the buildup in momentum has faded.' In NY trade, EUR fell briefly to 1.0315 before reversing sharply, soaring to a high of 1.0429. It then pulled back to close higher by 0.21% at 1.0382. Despite the choppy price action, there has been a slight increase in upward momentum. Today, there is a chance for EUR to retest the 1.0430 level before a more sustained pullback is likely. EUR is unlikely to break above the major resistance at 1.0450. Support levels are at 1.0355 and 1.0330."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Wednesday (05 Feb, spot at 1.0375), we highlighted that 'the outlook for EUR is unclear, and it could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490.' As we tracked the price movements, we indicated on Tuesday (11 Feb, spot at 1.0305) that “the outlook remains unclear, but the price movements are likely to stay within a narrower 1.0250/1.0450 range for now.' Our view remains unchanged."